17 December 2010

Predicting the Next Consistories to Create Cardinals

So the Consistory to create new cardinals in 2010 is now history. Its time to look ahead again and see if the next one (or three) can be predicted.

Lets take a quick look at the history of Pope Benedict XVI's cardinal creating consistories.
In recent history, these consistories typically fall near (often the day before) a major feast. For Benedict, it has been the Annunciation of the Lord (2006) and Christ the King (2007, 2010). Pope John Paul II used Sts Peter & Paul (1979, 1988, 1991), Presentation of the Lord (1983), Pentecost (1985), Christ the King (1994), and the 25th Anniversary of his election to the papacy (2003).

So now for the serious guess-work. The numbers below assume no voting age cardinals die and that at each consistory the number of voting cardinals becomes 120.

Scenario A:
  1. Corpus Christi, 2012 (10 Jun): 15 open voting slots
  2. Christ the King, 2013 (24 Nov): 16 open voting slots
  3. Christ the King, 2015 (22 Nov): 19 open voting slots
Scenario B:
  1. Corpus Christi, 2012 (10 Jun): 15 open voting slots
  2. Pentecost, 2014 (19 May): 21 open voting slots
  3. Pentecost, 2016 (15 May): 20 open voting slots
Scenario C:
  1. Christ the King, 2012 (25 Nov): 21 open voting slots
  2. Pentecost, 2014 (19 May): 15 open voting slots
  3. Pentecost, 2016 (15 May): 19 open voting slots
Scenario D:
  1. Christ the King, 2012 (25 Nov): 21 open voting slots
  2. Christ the King, 2014 (23 Nov): 21 open voting slots
  3. Christ the King, 2016 (20 Nov): 21 open voting slots
I think that Scenario A is the most likely. Followed by C, B, and D. Of course, I could be wrong about all of them.
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