05 January 2015

Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2015

This posts assumes that the plans announced yesterday for a Consistory to Create New Cardinals on 14 Feb 2015 are not changed and that there are no deaths.

On 15 Feb 2015, there will be 228 Living Cardinals with 125 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary. (Today it is 208 and 110, respectively.)

The average age of the Cardinals on that day will be 77.77 and the average of the electors will be 71.10 years old. (Today it is 78.19 and 71.50, respectively.)

The average length of service as a Cardinal on that day will be 11.08 years, 6.40 years if only considering electors. (Today it is 12.04 and 7.16 years, respectively.)

The number of Cardinal Electors will fall back to 120 on 28 February 2016, the day after Cardinal Mahony turns 80.

The youngest Cardinal will be Soane Patita Paini Mafi (Bishop of Tonga) who will be 53.1 years old when he is created.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:
  • Number of Cardinals (1585-2025; 1915-2025; and 1965-2025)
  • Average Age (1585-2025; 1915-2025; and 1965-2025)

Cardinals Turning 80

WhenCardinal Electors
Now110
15 Feb 2015125
End of 2015121
End of 2016109
End of 2017104
End of 201896
(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)


Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote has been trending downward.

After the creation of the new Cardinals, 55% will be Electors (today it is 53%).

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations beyond what has been announced, on 27 Jun 2016, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (114 of 228). On 25 Aug 2016 it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (113 of 228).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.
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