Predicting the Next Consistories to Create Cardinals

So the Consistory to create new cardinals in 2010 is now history. Its time to look ahead again and see if the next one (or three) can be predicted.

Lets take a quick look at the history of Pope Benedict XVI's cardinal creating consistories.

• 24 Mar 2006: Created 12 voting, 3 non-voting; before: 178 living, 109 voting
  
• 24 Nov 2007: Created 18 voting, 5 non-voting (plus 1 that died before the consistory); before: 178 living, 103 voting
  
• 20 Nov 2010: Created 20 voting, 4 non-voting; before: 179 living, 101 voting
  

In recent history, these consistories typically fall near (often the day before) a major feast. For Benedict, it has been the Annunciation of the Lord (2006) and Christ the King (2007, 2010). Pope John Paul II used Sts Peter & Paul (1979, 1988, 1991), Presentation of the Lord (1983), Pentecost (1985), Christ the King (1994), and the 25th Anniversary of his election to the papacy (2003).

So now for the serious guess-work. The numbers below assume no voting age cardinals die and that at each consistory the number of voting cardinals becomes 120.

Scenario A:

1. Corpus Christi, 2012 (10 Jun): 15 open voting slots
   
2. Christ the King, 2013 (24 Nov): 16 open voting slots
   
3. Christ the King, 2015 (22 Nov): 19 open voting slots
   

Scenario B:

1. Corpus Christi, 2012 (10 Jun): 15 open voting slots
   
2. Pentecost, 2014 (19 May): 21 open voting slots
   
3. Pentecost, 2016 (15 May): 20 open voting slots
   

Scenario C:

1. Christ the King, 2012 (25 Nov): 21 open voting slots
   
2. Pentecost, 2014 (19 May): 15 open voting slots
   
3. Pentecost, 2016 (15 May): 19 open voting slots
   

Scenario D:

1. Christ the King, 2012 (25 Nov): 21 open voting slots
   
2. Christ the King, 2014 (23 Nov): 21 open voting slots
   
3. Christ the King, 2016 (20 Nov): 21 open voting slots
   

I think that Scenario A is the most likely. Followed by C, B, and D. Of course, I could be wrong about all of them.

Pre-Pope John Paul II Bishops

With the year almost complete, its time to revisit the listing the pre-Pope John Paul II bishops. So here is a fresh list - with 6 fewer entries than the last.

So on to the question: How many active bishops were appointed to their current post before Pope John Paul II became Pope?

The answer is Twenty Five ordinaries and Three auxiliary bishops.

The ordinaries are: (Date of Appointment, Date of Birth, Name, Title)

• 24 Mar 1944, 12 Oct 1906, Bishop Francis Hong Yong-ho of P’yong-yang, Korea (North)
  (Originally named Vicar Apostolic, Elevated to Bishop on 10 Mar 1962)
  
• 23 May 1966, 12 Apr 1919, Archbishop Hovhannes Tcholakian of Istanbul (Armenian), Turkey
  
• 13 Apr 1973, 16 Jun 1936, Anthony Olubunmi Cardinal Okogie, Archbishop of Lagos, Nigeria
  (Elevated to Cardinal on 21 Oct 2003)
  
• 25 Jun 1973, 11 Dec 1936, Archbishop Nikólaos Fóscolos of Athenai {Athens}, Greece
  
• 26 Nov 1973, 7 May 1937, Bishop Nestorius Timanywa of Bukoba, Tanzania
  
• 1 May 1974, 15 Mar 1939, Archbishop Hanna Zora of Archbishop of Ahwaz (Chaldean), Iran
  
• 27 Jun 1974, 5 Dec 1936, Bishop Franghískos Papamanólis, O.F.M. Cap. of Syros e Milos and Santorini {Thira}, Greece
  
• 5 Oct 1974, 24 Jun 1938, Archbishop Felix Alaba Adeosin Job of Ibadan, Nigeria
  (Originally named Bishop, Elevated to Archbishop on 26 Mar 1994)
  
• 20 Nov 1975, 10 May 1942, Bishop Gilbert Guillaume Marie-Jean Aubry of Saint-Denis-de-La Réunion
  
• 4 Mar 1976, 25 Sep 1933, Bishop Ulises Aurelio Casiano Vargas of Mayagüez, Puerto Rico
  
• 10 Apr 1976, 28 Apr 1933, Archbishop Petero Mataca of Suva, Fiji, Pacific (Oceania)
  
• 28 Oct 1976, 12 Feb 1936, Archbishop Michael Kpakala Francis of Monrovia, Liberia
  (Originally named Vicar Apostolic, Elevated to Archbishop on 19 Dec 1981)
  
• 3 Dec 1976, 26 Nov 1936, Archbishop Jaime Pedro Gonçalves of Beira, Mozambique
  (Named Coadjutor 19 Dec 1975, Succeeded to the See on 3 Dec 1976, elevated to Archbishop on 4 Jun 1984)
  
• 1 Feb 1977, 31 Oct 1938, Bishop Howard James Hubbard of Albany, New York, USA
  
• 26 Feb 1977, 5 Aug 1937, Archbishop Hieronymus Herculanus Bumbun, O.F.M. Cap. of Pontianak, Indonesia
  
• 26 Feb 1977, 13 Sep 1936, Bishop George Punnakottil of Kothamangalam (Syro-Malabarese), India
  
• 26 Feb 1977, 25 Sep 1940, Bishop Jean-Claude Bouchard, O.M.I. of Pala, Chad
  
• 4 Mar 1977, 4 Dec 1934, Bishop Frederick D'Souza of Jhansi, India
  
• 30 May 1977, 20 Mar 1937, Bishop Anthony Lee Kok Hin of Miri, Malaysia
  
• 10 Nov 1977, 11 Sep 1929, Bishop Sebastian Koto Khoarai, O.M.I. of Mohale’s Hoek, Lesotho
  
• 27 Feb 1978, 23 Sep 1939, Bishop Armando Umberto Gianni, O.F.M. Cap. of Bouar, Central African Republic
  
• 27 Feb 1978, 5 Jul 1942, Archbishop Zacchaeus Okoth of Kisumu, Kenya
  (Originally named Bishop, Elevated to Archbishop on 21 May 1990)
  
• 28 Feb 1978, 15 Aug 1937, Bishop Philip Sulumeti of Kakamega, Kenya
  
• 5 May 1978, 12 Jan 1939, Bishop Reinaldo Ernst E. (Heribert) Pünder of Coroatá, Maranho, Brazil
  
• 12 Sep 1978, 8 Jun 1936, Bishop Joseph Dao of Kayes, Mali
  

and the Auxiliaries:

• 20 Nov 1973, 10 Jan 1935, Bishop Pawel Socha, C.M., Auxiliary Bishop of Zielona Góra-Gorzów, Poland and Titular of Thunigaba
  (Original name of Diocese was Gorzów)
  
• 12 Jul 1975, 7 Sep 1930, Bishop Roland Aboujaoudé, Auxiliary of Antiochia {Antioch} (Maronite), Lebanon and Titular of Arca in Phoenicia dei Maroniti
  
• 28 Nov 1977, 25 Nov 1936, Bishop Kenneth Donald Steiner, Auxiliary of Portland in Oregon, USA and Titular of Avensa
  

Bishop Francis Hong Yong-ho was named by Pope Pius XII. Although he is still officially listed as "missing" it seems unlikely that he remains alive.

Bishop Joseph Dao was named by Pope John Paul I.

All of the others were named by Pope Paul VI.

You'll notice that many of them are at or near the retirement age. Before they do retire, let us take a moment to thank them for their many years of service!

View of Rome from the Dome of St. Peter′s Basilica

A panorama created from some photos that I took today from the Dome of St. Peter's Basilica.

Pope Benedict XVI

From this evening:

Random Facts about the 2010 class of Cardinals

When the new 24 Cardinals-Designate join the college, it will lower the average age by 0.7 years to 77.85 (0.5 years among just the electors to 72.50).

The average age of the new voting members is just under 70. (Compared to 66.8 in 2007 and 67.6 in 2006.)

The number of voting members will total 121 on 20 November, but it will fall back to 120 toward the end of January 2011. At the last consistory to create cardinals (2007), Pope Benedict XVI intended to make the number of voting members total 121, but Stephen Fumio Cardinal Hamao died before the consistory.

Cardinal-Designate Reinhard Marx (Archbishop of München und Freising {Munich}, Germany) will become the youngest member of the college at age: 57.2. He is taking the spot from Péter Cardinal Erdõ (Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Hungary) currently age 58.3.

In an unusual move, two of the cardinals-designate are retired residential bishops: Medardo Joseph Mazombwe (Archbishop Emeritus of Lusaka, Zambia; Age: 79.2) and Raúl Eduardo Vela Chiriboga, (Archbishop Emeritus of Quito, Ecuador; Age: 76.9).

Cardinal Electors, by the Numbers, an update

As of today, there are 106 Cardinal Electors out of 179 total living Cardinals.

In the month of September, three more Cardinals will turn 80 and lose their vote. An additional Cardinal loses their vote in each of October and November.

By mid-November, the Cardinal Elector count will be down to 101.

From there, the number is stable until late January, then in a period of 4 weeks, 4 more Cardinals turn 80.

A List of Cardinal Electors by Age.

The Dozen Largest Orders by Number of Priests

The top 12 largest orders (by number of priests) in total are 51% of all the priests in orders. In the table below is the number of priests, % of all priests in orders, and the name of the order.

Priests	%	Order
13,096	10%	Society of Jesus
10,780	8%	Salesians of Saint John Bosco
10,124	7%	Order of Friars Minor
6,944	5%	Order of Friars Minor Capuchin
4,466	3%	Order of Friars Preachers
4,143	3%	Congregation of the Most Holy Redeemer
4,115	3%	Order of Saint Benedict
4,047	3%	Society of the Divine Word
3,140	2%	Oblates of Mary Immaculate
3,068	2%	Congregation of the Mission
2,951	2%	Order of Friars Minor Conventual
2,725	2%	Order of Discalced Carmelites

The next order in this sequence drops to only 2,187 priests. The top two dozen largest orders include all that have more than 1,000 priests. (Numbers based on the Annuario Pontificio 2010)

Pre-Pope John Paul II Bishops (updated)

It has been a few months since my last post listing the pre-Pope John Paul II bishops. So here is a fresh list - with 8 fewer entries than the original.

So on to the question: How many active bishops were appointed to their current post before Pope John Paul II became Pope?

The answer is Thirty Four Twenty Nine ordinaries and Five auxiliary bishops.

(Last updated 2 May 2010)

The ordinaries are: (Date of Appointment, Date of Birth, Name, Title)

• 24 Mar 1944, 12 Oct 1906, Bishop Francis Hong Yong-ho of P’yong-yang, Korea (North)
  (Originally named Vicar Apostolic, Elevated to Bishop on 10 Mar 1962)
  
• 23 May 1966, 12 Apr 1919, Archbishop Hovhannes Tcholakian of Istanbul (Armenian), Turkey
  
• 13 Jul 1967, 26 Oct 1930, Bishop Joseph B. Willigers, M.H.M. of Jinja, Uganda
  Retired 2 Mar 2010
  
• 26 Jun 1970, 3 Oct 1933, Bishop Gonzalo López Marañon, O.C.D. of San Miguel de Sucumbíos, Ecuador
  (Originally named Prefect, Elevated to Vicar Apostolic on 2 Jul 1984)
  
• 30 Jul 1972, 17 Apr 1935, Bishop Michael Patrick Olatunji Fagun of Ekiti, Nigeria
  Retired 17 Apr 2010
  
• 13 Apr 1973, 16 Jun 1936, Anthony Olubunmi Cardinal Okogie, Archbishop of Lagos, Nigeria
  (Elevated to Cardinal on 21 Oct 2003)
  
• 13 Apr 1973, Nov 1934, Bishop Julius Babatunde Adelakun of Oyo, Nigeria
  Retired 4 Nov 2009
  
• 25 Jun 1973, 11 Dec 1936, Archbishop Nikólaos Fóscolos of Athenai {Athens}, Greece
  
• 26 Nov 1973, 7 May 1937, Bishop Nestorius Timanywa of Bukoba, Tanzania
  
• 1 May 1974, 15 Mar 1939, Archbishop Hanna Zora of Archbishop of Ahwaz (Chaldean), Iran
  
• 27 Jun 1974, 5 Dec 1936, Bishop Franghískos Papamanólis, O.F.M. Cap. of Syros e Milos and Santorini {Thira}, Greece
  
• 7 Sep 1974, 1935, Bishop Faustin Ngabu of Goma, Congo (Dem. Rep.)
  (Named Coadjutor 24 Apr 1974, Succeeded to the See on 7 Sep 1974)
  Retired 18 Mar 2010
  
• 5 Oct 1974, 24 Jun 1938, Archbishop Felix Alaba Adeosin Job of Ibadan, Nigeria
  (Originally named Bishop, Elevated to Archbishop on 26 Mar 1994)
  
• 12 Dec 1974, Sep 1937, Archbishop Anselme Titianma Sanon of Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
  (Originally named Bishop, Elevated to Archbishop on 5 Dec 2000)
  
• 2 Oct 1975, 10 Oct 1935, Bishop Joseph Devellerez Thaung Shwe of Pyay, Myanmar
  (Original name of diocese: Prome)
  
• 20 Nov 1975, 10 May 1942, Bishop Gilbert Guillaume Marie-Jean Aubry of Saint-Denis-de-La Réunion
  
• 4 Mar 1976, 25 Sep 1933, Bishop Ulises Aurelio Casiano Vargas of Mayagüez, Puerto Rico
  
• 10 Apr 1976, 28 Apr 1933, Archbishop Petero Mataca of Suva, Fiji, Pacific (Oceania)
  
• 31 May 1976, 1 Mar 1935, Bishop Francis Folorunsho Clement Alonge of Ondo, Nigeria
  
• 28 Oct 1976, 12 Feb 1936, Archbishop Michael Kpakala Francis of Monrovia, Liberia
  (Originally named Vicar Apostolic, Elevated to Archbishop on 19 Dec 1981)
  
• 3 Dec 1976, 26 Nov 1936, Archbishop Jaime Pedro Gonçalves of Beira, Mozambique
  (Named Coadjutor 19 Dec 1975, Succeeded to the See on 3 Dec 1976, elevated to Archbishop on 4 Jun 1984)
  
• 1 Feb 1977, 31 Oct 1938, Bishop Howard James Hubbard of Albany, New York, USA
  
• 26 Feb 1977, 5 Aug 1937, Archbishop Hieronymus Herculanus Bumbun, O.F.M. Cap. of Pontianak, Indonesia
  
• 26 Feb 1977, 13 Sep 1936, Bishop George Punnakottil of Kothamangalam (Syro-Malabarese), India
  
• 26 Feb 1977, 25 Sep 1940, Bishop Jean-Claude Bouchard, O.M.I. of Pala, Chad
  
• 4 Mar 1977, 4 Dec 1934, Bishop Frederick D'Souza of Jhansi, India
  
• 30 May 1977, 20 Mar 1937, Bishop Anthony Lee Kok Hin of Miri, Malaysia
  
• 10 Nov 1977, 11 Sep 1929, Bishop Sebastian Koto Khoarai, O.M.I. of Mohale’s Hoek, Lesotho
  
• 27 Feb 1978, 23 Sep 1939, Bishop Armando Umberto Gianni, O.F.M. Cap. of Bouar, Central African Republic
  
• 27 Feb 1978, 5 Jul 1942, Archbishop Zacchaeus Okoth of Kisumu, Kenya
  (Originally named Bishop, Elevated to Archbishop on 21 May 1990)
  
• 28 Feb 1978, 15 Aug 1937, Bishop Philip Sulumeti of Kakamega, Kenya
  
• 5 May 1978, 12 Jan 1939, Bishop Reinaldo Ernst E. (Heribert) Pünder of Coroatá, Maranho, Brazil
  
• 22 Jun 1978, 26 Jul 1934, Bishop James Pazhayattil of Irinjalakuda (Syro-Malabarese), India
  Retired 15 Jan 2010
  
• 12 Sep 1978, 8 Jun 1936, Bishop Joseph Dao of Kayes, Mali
  

and the Auxiliaries:

• 28 Nov 1967, 10 Oct 1929, Bishop José Ramiro Pellecer Samayoa, Auxiliary Bishop of Guatemala and Titular of Teglata in Proconsulari
  
• 20 Nov 1973, 10 Jan 1935, Bishop Pawel Socha, C.M., Auxiliary Bishop of Zielona Góra-Gorzów, Poland and Titular of Thunigaba
  (Original name of Diocese was Gorzów)
  
• 12 Jul 1975, 7 Sep 1930, Bishop Roland Aboujaoudé, Auxiliary of Antiochia {Antioch} (Maronite), Lebanon and Titular of Arca in Phoenicia dei Maroniti
  
• 28 Nov 1977, 25 Nov 1936, Bishop Kenneth Donald Steiner, Auxiliary of Portland in Oregon, USA and Titular of Avensa
  
• 28 Feb 1978, 13 Feb 1935, Bishop Peter Anthony Rosazza, Auxiliary of Hartford, Connecticut, USA and Titular of Oppidum Novum
  

Bishop Francis Hong Yong-ho was named by Pope Pius XII. Although he is still officially listed as "missing" it seems unlikely that he remains alive.

Bishop Joseph Dao was named by Pope John Paul I.

All of the others were named by Pope Paul VI.

You'll notice that many of them are at or near the retirement age. Before they do retire, let us take a moment to thank them for their many years of service!

Quick Look: College of Cardinals as it ages

Since so many folks are now predicting a consistory to create cardinals later this year, it seems like a good time to take a look at the current college as it ages in the coming years.

There are a total of 183 living cardinals, with 112 of those under the age of 80 and thus able to vote in a conclave were it to become necessary.

Only 30 of those 112 were created cardinals by Pope Benedict XVI, all of the remaining cardinal electors were created by Pope John Paul II.

Eleven cardinals will lose their vote this year as they reach 80 - all were created by Pope John Paul II.

Nine more cardinals will lose their vote next year for the same reason. But two of those were created by Pope Benedict XVI.

Thirteen more lose their vote in 2012. Two of this group were created by Pope Benedict XVI.

The following table is for Cardinal Electors only.

End of	JP2 Cards	B16 Cards	Total
2009	82	30	112
2010	71	30	101
2011	64	28	92
2012	53	26	79
2013	44	25	69
2014	37	23	60

Here are a couple of links that might be useful for further research: Cardinal Electors by Age and Cardinals by Rank.

Note: all of the above figures assume no Cardinal dies before reaching the age of 80 and obviously don't include any new Cardinals created.