Predicting the Next Consistory to Create Cardinals (updated Oct 2024)

Pope Francis has held a consistory to create new cardinals every year of his papacy with the exceptions of his first and 2021.

This year is already half over and there are a number of large events already scheduled. Notably a papal trip to Asia and Oceania (2 to 13 Sep), papal trip to Luxembourg and Belgium (26 to 29 Sep), the Synod (2 to 27 Oct), and the start of the Holy Year on 24 Dec.

So that leaves November and most of December available.

All that follows is pure speculation :-)

I think the most likely date is Sat 7 Dec (just before the Feast of the Immaculate Conception).

The announcement of the consistory has generally been 1 to 2 months in advance. Since I suspect that some of those attending the Synod might be on the list, I don't expect it before that concludes on Sun 27 Oct.

The following week there are several opportunities. The Angelus on Sun 27 Oct, General Audience Wed 30 Oct, and the events around All Saints and All Souls.

Note that on 7 Dec there will be 121 Cardinal-electors (out of 236 total), assuming no deaths. While that is above already the limit of 120, that limit has been widely disregarded in the past. See Cardinal Electors and Modern Limits for more details. 

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So, on 7 Oct 2024 Pope Francis announced his intention to create 21 new Cardinals on 8 Dec 2024! I was close!

On 12 Oct 2024, it was announced that the date was changed to my original prediction - 7 Dec 2024!

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 Here are some other posts and links that might be useful.

• Cardinal Stats and Charts
• Cardinal Electors and Modern Limits
• When does a Cardinal become ineligible to Vote in a Conclave?
• When does a Cardinal become a Cardinal?

Some Cardinal links to the main site that might be useful:

• Consistory to Create Cardinals - 8 Dec 2024
• Consistories to Create Cardinals

• by Rank: Cardinal-Bishops | Cardinal-Priests | Cardinal-Deacons
• Voting & Non-Voting
• Oldest and Youngest
• Seniority, by Priestly Ordination | Seniority, by Bishop Ordination
• Cardinal Titles: Currently Vacant

Possible USA Catholic Hierarchy Changes for 2024

• Cardinals
  • Seán Patrick Cardinal O’Malley, O.F.M. Cap., Archbishop of Boston, Massachusetts, turns 80 on 29 Jun. He is very likely to retire on or before that date.
  • Christophe Louis Yves Georges Cardinal Pierre, Apostolic Nuncio to United States of America turns 78 on 30 Jan. No indication when he will retire.
  • Wilton Daniel Cardinal Gregory, Archbishop of Washington, District of Columbia turned 76 on 7 Dec. While he is eligible to retire, I suspect he will remain in office.
  • Blase Joseph Cardinal Cupich, Archbishop of Chicago, Illinois turns 75 on 19 Mar. I suspect he will remain in his post for a few more years.
  • Daniel Nicholas Cardinal DiNardo, Archbishop of Galveston-Houston, Texas turns 75 on 23 May. His retirement is certainly possible, especially after some health issues about 5 years ago, but it is difficult to say.

• Archbishops (not already covered above)
  Over 75 (could retire at any time)
  • Archbishop Dennis Marion Schnurr, Archbishop of Cincinnati, Ohio turned 75 on 21 Jun 2023.
  • Archbishop Allen Henry Vigneron, Archbishop of Detroit, Michigan turned 75 on 21 Oct 2023.

• Turning 75 in 2024
  • Archbishop Jerome Edward Listecki, Archbishop of Milwaukee, Wisconsin turns 75 on 12 Mar.
  • Archbishop Thomas John Rodi, Archbishop of Mobile, Alabama turns 75 on 27 Mar.
  • Archbishop Leonard Paul Blair, Archbishop of Hartford, Connecticut turns 75 on 12 Apr.
    Received a Coadjutor, Archbishop Christopher James Coyne on 26 Jun 2023.
  • Archbishop Joseph Fred Naumann, Archbishop of Kansas City in Kansas turns 75 on 4 Jun.
  • Archbishop George Joseph Lucas, Archbishop of Omaha, Nebraska turns 75 on 12 Jun.
  • Archbishop Gregory Michael Aymond, Archbishop of New Orleans, Louisiana turns 75 on 12 Nov.

• Bishops (ordinaries)
  Over 75 (could retire at any time)
  • Bishop Dennis Joseph Sullivan, Bishop of Camden, New Jersey turned 75 on 17 Mar 2020.
  • Bishop Robert Peter Deeley, Bishop of Portland, Maine turned 75 on 18 Jun 2021.
  • Bishop Salvatore Ronald Matano, Bishop of Rochester, New York turned 75 on 15 Sep 2021.
  • Bishop Mark Edward Brennan, Bishop of Wheeling-Charleston, West Virginia turned 75 on 6 Feb 2022.
  • Bishop Ralph Walker Nickless, Bishop of Sioux City, Iowa turned 75 on 28 May 2022.
  • Bishop Liam Stephen Cary, Bishop of Baker, Oregon turned 75 on 21 Aug 2022.
  • Bishop Edward Bernard Scharfenberger, Bishop of Albany, New York turned 75 on 29 May 2023.
  • Bishop Patrick James Zurek, Bishop of Amarillo, Texas turned 75 on 17 Aug 2023.

• Turning 75 in 2024
  • Bishop Michael Richard Cote, Bishop of Norwich, Connecticut turns 75 on 19 Jun.
  • Bishop Clarence Richard Silva, Bishop of Honolulu, Hawaii turns 75 on 6 Aug
  • Bishop Glen John Provost, Bishop of Lake Charles, Louisiana turns 75 on 9 Aug.
  • Bishop William Michael Mulvey, Bishop of Corpus Christi, Texas turns 75 on 23 Aug.
  • Bishop David Allen Zubik, Bishop of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania turns 75 on 4 Sep.
  • Bishop James Anthony Tamayo, Bishop of Laredo, Texas turns 75 on 23 Oct.
  • Bishop David Dennis Kagan, Bishop of Bismarck, North Dakota turns 75 on 9 Nov.

Already Vacant
(All are Dioceses/Eparchies)

• Burlington, Vermont, since 26 Jun 2023
• Davenport, Iowa, since 26 Jul 2023
• Holy Protection of Mary of Phoenix (Ruthenian), Arizona, since 23 Aug 2021
• Knoxville, Tennessee, since 27 Jun 2023
• Steubenville, Ohio, since 28 Sep 2023
• Tyler, Texas, since 11 Nov 2023

Cardinal Sako born when?

Louis Raphaël I Cardinal Sako, Patriarch of Baghdad (Chaldean), Iraq, revealed in an interview that his parents re-used the birth certificate of his older brother (who had died). His actual birth date is 1 year later than previously thought (thus 4 July 1949). 

The interview can be found here.

Here is the relevant section, in the original language and with a translation (provided by Google Translate):

KNA: Sie haben unlängst Ihren 75. Geburtstag gefeiert.

Sako: Das stimmt nicht. Ich wurde 1949 geboren. Aber ich hatte einen älteren Bruder selben Namens, der gestorben ist. Meine Eltern haben mir seine Geburtsurkunde gegeben. Ich werde also erst nächstes Jahr am 4. Juli 75 Jahre alt.

KNA: You recently celebrated your 75th birthday.

Sako: That's not true. I was born in 1949. But I had an older brother with the same name who died. My parents gave me his birth certificate. So I won't be 75 until July 4th next year.

The correct date is not reflected in any of the usual sources (yet).

A Collection of Cardinal related Posts and Links

Here is a collection of Cardinal related posts, some recent, some older, but all still relevant.

 

• Cardinal Sako: born when?
• Cardinal Stats and Charts (includes the latest)
• Cardinal Njue as Cardinal-Elector (new)
• Cardinal Electors and Modern Limits, updated July 2023
• When does a Cardinal become ineligible to Vote in a Conclave?
• When does a Cardinal become a Cardinal?
• Some notes on the Newest Cardinals

Some Cardinal links to the main site that might be useful:

• Consistory to Create Cardinals - 30 Sep 2023
• by Rank: Cardinal-Bishops | Cardinal-Priests | Cardinal-Deacons
• Voting & Non-Voting
• Oldest and Youngest
• Seniority, by Priestly Ordination | Seniority, by Bishop Ordination
• Cardinal Titles: Currently Vacant

Cardinal Njue as Cardinal-Elector (updated!)

With the recent release of  the Annuario Pontificio 2024 the whole situation has changed. Now, John Cardinal Njue, Archbishop Emeritus of Nairobi, Kenya, and Cardinal-Priest of Preziosissimo Sangue di Nostro Signore Gesù Cristo is shown with a birthdate of 1 Jan 1946 (see AP2024 p78). 

This resolves the previous issue completely.

Below is the original post for historical reasons.

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In a previous post, we had discussed when a Cardinal loses the right to vote in a Conclave. In brief, it depends on when a Cardinal reaches the age of 80.

We have an unusual situation with John Cardinal Njue, Archbishop Emeritus of Nairobi, Kenya, and Cardinal-Priest of Preziosissimo Sangue di Nostro Signore Gesù Cristo. In his case, we only know the year in which he was born (1944) - but not the month nor day.

So when does he reach the age of 80?

In my opinion, in fairness to Cardinal Njue, one must treat him as if he was born on the last day of the year 1944 - thus losing his vote on 1 Jan 2025 (see the above linked post for details).

I note that on the Vatican website, there is a List of Cardinals in order of Age and on that list his birth date is listed as "31-12-1944" but the bios to which it links only gives the year of birth. This would seem to suggest they agree with my view.

God willing, the need for a Conclave in 2024 will not occur and complete clarification of the issue will not be neccessary.

Cardinal Stats and Charts, Summer 2023 (includes Cardinal-Designates)

This posts assumes that there are no deaths among the current Cardinals or the Cardinal-Designates.

As of today (11 Jul 2023), there are be 222 Living Cardinals with 121 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals is 79.0 and the average of the electors is 72.6 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal is 12.0 years, 8.5 years if only considering electors.

After the next Consistory to Create Cardinals on 30 Sep 2023, there will be: 243 Living Cardinals with 137 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals will be 78.2 and the average of the electors is 71.6 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal will be 11.2 years, 7.5 years if only considering electors.

The youngest two Cardinals are (the only ones under 50):

• Giorgio Marengo, I.M.C., 49.1, Prefect of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
• Américo Manuel Alves Aguiar, 49.6, Auxiliary Bishop of Lisboa {Lisbon}, Portugal.

The latter is one of the Cardinal-Designates.

The oldest Cardinal is Alexandre do Nascimento (Archbishop Emeritus of Luanda, Angola) who is 98.4.

Note a list of the oldest and youngest dozen Cardinals can be found on the main site.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2033; 1915-2033; and 1965-2033)
• Average Age (1585-2033; 1915-2033; and 1965-2033)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	121
After New	137
End of 2023	132
End of 2024	120
End of 2025	106
End of 2026	100
End of 2027	87

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote had been trending downward. However, it has rebounded a bit in the recent times with the deaths of a number of the elderly Cardinals and a significant number of new creations.

Today, 54.1% are Electors. At the lowest point, it was 51.7% (before the November 2016 Consistory). After the Consistory, 56.4% will be Electors.

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations, on 11 Oct 2024, Cardinal-Electors will fall below 50% (121 of 243) for the first time ever.

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

Age Limit and 120 Limit on Voting Cardinals

There is a technical limit of 120 voting Cardinals, but it has frequently been exceeded and by every Pope since it was established.

Currently there are 121 voting Cardinals. After the new Consistory, it will be 137. Assuming no deaths and no new Cardinals creations, the number will back to 120 voting Cardinals on 25 Dec 2024.

(See this link for more information on this topic)

Some Notes on the New Cardinal-Designates

One of the new Cardinal-Designates (full list here) will become the 4th oldest living Cardinal: Father Luis Pascual Dri, O.F.M. Cap. (Age 96.4).

Five of the new Cardinal-Designates will be on the list of the youngest dozen after the consistory:

• Américo Manuel Alves Aguiar, Auxiliary Bishop of Lisboa {Lisbon}, Portugal; Age: 49.7
• François-Xavier Bustillo, O.F.M. Conv., Bishop of Ajaccio, France; Age: 54.8
• José Cobo Cano, Archbishop of Madrid, Spain; Age: 58.0
• Pierbattista Pizzaballa, O.F.M., Patriarch of Jerusalem {Gerusalemme}, Palestine; Age: 58.4
• Grzegorz Ryś, Archbishop of Łódź, Poland; Age: 59.6

(all ages are their ages at the time of the announcement)

Of the 21, nine have an accent in their name.

Two are current Apostolic Nuncios, although given their ages, they are likely to retire this year.

• Emil Paul Tscherrig, Apostolic Nuncio to Italy; Age: 76.6
• Christophe Louis Yves Georges Pierre, Apostolic Nuncio to United States of America; Age: 77.6

Cardinal Stats and Charts, Summer 2022

This posts assumes that there are no deaths among the current Cardinals.

As of today (27 Aug 2022, there are be 226 Living Cardinals with 132 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals is 78.2 and the average of the electors is 72.3 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal is 11.2 years, 8.0 years if only considering electors.

The youngest three Cardinals are (all from the group created today):

• Giorgio Marengo, I.M.C., 48.20, Prefect of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
• Virgilio do Carmo da Silva, S.D.B., 54.73, Archbishop of Díli, Timor-Leste.
• Paulo Cezar Costa, 55.08, Archbishop of Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil.

The oldest Cardinal is Alexandre do Nascimento (Archbishop Emeritus of Luanda, Angola) who is 97.5.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2032; 1915-2032; and 1965-2032)
• Average Age (1585-2032; 1915-2032; and 1965-2032)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	132
End of 2022	126
End of 2023	115
End of 2024	102
End of 2025	89
End of 2026	84

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote had been trending downward. However, it has rebounded a bit in the recent times with the deaths of a number of the elderly Cardinals and a significant number of new creations.

Today, 58.4% are Electors. At the lowest point, it was 51.7% (before the November 2016 Consistory).

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations, on 30 Jan 2024, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (113 of 226). A fortnight later it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (112 of 226).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

Age Limit and 120 Limit on Voting Cardinals

There is a technical limit of 120 voting Cardinals, but it has frequently been exceeded and by every Pope since it was established.

Currently there are 132 voting Cardinals. Assuming no deaths and no new Cardinals creations, the number will back to 120 voting Cardinals on 18 Sep 2023.

(See this link for more information on this topic)

Cardinal Electors and Modern Limits, updated October 2024

First a bit of background information before we get to the periods were there was more than 120 Cardinal Electors.

The age limit on electors became effective on 1 Jan 1971 (Ingravescentem Aetatem). The limit of 120 electors was added on 1 Oct 1975 (Romano Pontifici Eligendo). The current rule (cardinals age 80 or less on the day the Holy See becomes vacant may vote) was added on 22 Feb 1996 (Universi Dominici Gregis).

Before the 1996 language, it is not possible to precisely say the number of cardinal electors (it was based on when the conclave began), so I'll disregard the 2 times before then when the number could have been 121 for short periods. (See the 2nd table)

Since then, there have been 14 times when the 120 number was exceeded.

Start	End	Highest	Days	Pope	Note
21-Feb-2001	1-Aug-2002	136	526	JP2
21-Oct-2003	12-Dec-2004	134	418	JP2	1
21-Oct-2003	10-Jan-2005	135	447	JP2	2
24-Mar-2006	25-Mar-2006	121	1	B16
20-Nov-2010	27-Jan-2011	121	68	B16
18-Feb-2012	27-Jul-2012	125	160	B16
22-Feb-2014	12-Mar-2014	122	18	F
14-Feb-2015	20-Apr-2015	125	65	F
19-Nov-2016	29-Nov-2016	121	10	F
28-Jun-2017	6-Sep-2017	121	70	F
28-Jun-2018	28-Apr-2019	125	304	F
05-Oct-2019	30-Sep-2020	128	361	F
28-Nov-2020	08-Nov-2021	128	345	F
27-Aug-2022	31-Jul-2023	132	338	F
30-Sep-2023	23-May-2026	141	966	F	3

There are two entries beginning in 2003 due to Cardinal Gulbinowicz. At the time it was thought that his birth year was 1928 (age out in 2008), but in reality it was 1923 (age out in 2003 just before the consistory). The correct birth year was not acknowledged until February 2005.

1) in reality
2) as perceived at the time
3) the final period is an estimate that assumes no cardinal elector dies and no new ones beyond what have been announced are created before the end date.

For completeness, here are the other times when the 120 limit was exceeded with some notes.

Start	End	Highest	Days	Pope	Note
28-Apr-1968	1-Jan-1971	134	978	P6	1
30-Jun-1979	1-Jul-1979	121	1	JP2	2
28-Jun-1988	27-Jul-1988	121	29	JP2	2

1) This was before the age limit and the 120 cardinal elector limit existed.
2) The count and Days are based on the current language. At the time the age limit was more vague and a precise count of electors is not possible.

(Revised on 27 Aug 2018 to add info about Cardinal Gulbinowicz) 

(Updated on 27 Aug 2022 to add three new periods over the limit)

(Updated on 11 Jul 2023 to reflect recent Cardinal deaths and Cardinal-Designates)

(Updated on 7 Oct 2024 to reflect recent Cardinal deaths, Cardinal-Designates, and clarified Cardinal birthdates)

Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2022

This posts assumes that there are no deaths among the current Cardinals.

As of today (6 Mar 2022, there are be 212 Living Cardinals with 119 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals is 79.0 and the average of the electors is 73.0 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal is 12.1 years, 8.8 years if only considering electors.

The youngest Cardinal is Dieudonné Nzapalainga, C.S.Sp. (Archbishop of Bangui) who is about to turn 55 (on 14 Mar).

The oldest Cardinal is Jozef Tomko (President Emeritus of the Pontifical Committee for International Eucharistic Congresses) who is about to turn 98 (on 11 Mar).

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2032; 1915-2032; and 1965-2032)
• Average Age (1585-2032; 1915-2032; and 1965-2032)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	119
End of 2022	110
End of 2023	99
End of 2024	86
End of 2025	74

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote had been trending downward. However, it has rebounded a bit in the recent times with the deaths of a number of the elderly Cardinals and a significant number of new creations.

Today, 56.1% are Electors. At the lowest point, it was 51.7% (before the November 2016 Consistory).

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations, on 3 Jun 2023, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (106 of 212). The following month it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (105 of 212).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

New Cardinals?

Pope Francis has created new Cardinals every year of his papacy except the first (2013) and last year (2021). I strongly suspect there will be a consistory to create cardinals around 28 Jun 2022 (or perhaps later in the Fall).

Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2019

This posts assumes that there are no deaths among the current Cardinals.

As of today (8 Dec 2019, there are be 224 Living Cardinals with 124 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals is 78.5 and the average of the electors is 71.8 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal is 11.3 years, 7.3 years if only considering electors.

The youngest Cardinal is Dieudonné Nzapalainga, C.S.Sp. (Archbishop of Bangui) who is 52.

The oldest Cardinal is Albert Vanhoye, S.J. (Secretary Emeritus of the Pontifical Biblical Commission) who is 96.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2029; 1915-2029; and 1965-2029)
• Average Age (1585-2029; 1915-2029; and 1965-2029)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	124
End of 2020	120
End of 2021	114
End of 2022	103

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote had been trending downward. However, it has rebounded a bit in the last few years with the deaths of a number of the elderly Cardinals and a significant number of new creations.

Today, 55.4% are Electors. At the lowest point, it was 51.7% (before the November 2016 Consistory).

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations, on 8 Apr 2022, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (112 of 224). Six days later it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (111 of 224).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

Next Consistory to Create Cardinals (predictions)

Currently there are 123 Cardinal Electors out of a total of 223 living Cardinals.

Nine Cardinal Electors will turn 80 (and thus lose their right to vote) by mid-October, bringing the Elector count down to 114.

The last two were held in late June, but at that point this year, the count will be at 120 Electors - making it a less likely time frame.

So I think that just before Christ the King Solemnity (24 November 2019) will be the next Consistory to Create Cardinals.

After that, it is a bit more tricky. Only 4 Cardinals turn 80 in 2020. In 2021, another 6 reach that age. So I think there will be another Consistory to Create new Cardinals just before Christ the King Solemnity 2021.

Finally, in 2022, 11 more Cardinals reach the age limit, although the majority are in the second half of the year. So yet another late year consistory is possible in 2022.

2023 is similar, with 11 Cardinals scheduled to reach the age limit.

Cardinal Electors and Modern Limits

First a bit of background information before we get to the periods were there was more than 120 Cardinal Electors.

The age limit on electors became effective on 1 Jan 1971 (Ingravescentem Aetatem). The limit of 120 electors was added on 1 Oct 1975 (Romano Pontifici Eligendo). The current rule (cardinals age 80 or less on the day the Holy See becomes vacant may vote) was added on 22 Feb 1996 (Universi Dominici Gregis).

Before the 1996 language, it is not possible to precisely say the number of cardinal electors (it was based on when the conclave began), so I'll disregard the 2 times before then when the number could have been 121 for short periods.

Since then, there have been 10 times when the 120 number was exceeded.

Start	End	Highest	Days	Pope	Note
21-Feb-2001	1-Aug-2002	136	526	JP2
21-Oct-2003	12-Dec-2004	134	418	JP2	1
21-Oct-2003	10-Jan-2005	135	447	JP2	2
24-Mar-2006	25-Mar-2006	121	1	B16
20-Nov-2010	27-Jan-2011	121	68	B16
18-Feb-2012	27-Jul-2012	125	160	B16
22-Feb-2014	12-Mar-2014	122	18	F
14-Feb-2015	20-Apr-2015	125	65	F
19-Nov-2016	29-Nov-2016	121	10	F
28-Jun-2017	6-Sep-2017	121	70	F
28-Jun-2018	28-Apr-2019	125	304	F	3

There are two entries beginning in 2003 due to Cardinal Gulbinowicz. At the time it was thought that his birth year was 1928 (age out in 2008), but in reality it was 1923 (age out in 2003 just before the consistory). The correct birth year was not acknowledged until February 2005.
1) in reality
2) as perceived at the time
3) the final period is an estimate that assumes no cardinal elector dies and no new ones are created before the end date.

For completeness, here are the other times when the 120 limit was exceeded with some notes.

Start	End	Highest	Days	Pope	Note
28-Apr-1968	1-Jan-1971	134	978	P6	1
30-Jun-1979	1-Jul-1979	121	1	JP2	2
28-Jun-1988	27-Jul-1988	121	29	JP2	2

1) This was before the age limit and the 120 cardinal elector limit existed.
2) The count and Days are based on the current language. At the time the age limit was more vague and a precise count of electors is not possible.

(Revised on 27 Aug 2018 to add info about Cardinal Gulbinowicz)

Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2017

This posts assumes that there are no deaths among the current Cardinals.

As of today (5 Feb 2017, there are be 226 Living Cardinals with 119 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals is 78.16 and the average of the electors is 71.18 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal is 11.27 years, 6.39 years if only considering electors.

The youngest Cardinal is Dieudonné Nzapalainga, C.S.Sp. (Archbishop of Bangui) who will turn 50 years old on 14 March.

The oldest Cardinal is José de Jesús Pimiento Rodriguez (Archbishop Emeritus of Manizales) who will turn 98 on the 18th of this month.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2027; 1915-2027; and 1965-2027)
• Average Age (1585-2027; 1915-2027; and 1965-2027)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	119
End of 2017	116
End of 2018	109
End of 2019	99

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

For a prediction of when the next batch of Cardinals will be created, please see this post.

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote has been trending downward.

Today, 52.2% are Electors.

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations, on 7 Mar 2018, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (113 of 226). On 30 Mar 2018 it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (112 of 226).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

Predicting New Cardinals: 2018 and 2019

As of today, there are 226 living Cardinals. Of those, 120 have the right to vote in a Conclave when one becomes necessary (aka, they have not yet turned 80 years old). These are called the Cardinal Electors.

The limit of the number of Cardinal Electors is 120, although the Pope can ignore that if he so desires.

This year (2017) only four Cardinal Electors turn 80. That makes a consistory to create new cardinals this year unlikely.

Next year (2018) is a different story - seven additional Cardinals turn 80. In an odd streak of luck, all of them fall in the first half of the year.

Assuming no deaths, that means that 11 Cardinal Elector "slots" will be available by June, 2018. So I'm predicting a Consistory to Create New Cardinals in late Spring or early Summer 2018.

With the effort of Pope Francis to de-emphasize the Roman aspect of the pallium distribution, perhaps the weekend after the Solemnity of Sts. Peter and Paul would be a good time.

In 2019, an additional 11 Cardinal Electors turn 80. Four of those fall in October. Thus I'm predicting another Consistory to Create New Cardinals in late Fall 2019.

The weekend of Christ the King (23-24 Nov) would be an obvious choice but there are other options such as All Saints/All Souls or the Dedication of the Lateran Basilica.

(Note I had previously predicted a consistory in the "Spring of 2018" in this post back in November 2015.)

Of course, I have no inside knowledge and the creation of cardinals is at the complete discretion of the Holy Father.

Related:

• List of Cardinal Electors by Age
• List of Previous Consistories to Create Cardinals

Prediction: Next Consistory to Create Cardinals

As this liturgical year wraps up, lets take a look at next year and the College of Cardinals. Currently there are 118 electors among the 218 living cardinals, leaving only 2 open "slots" for new voting age cardinals. Assuming no deaths, that will not change until 28 Feb 2016 when Cardinal Mahony loses his elector status.

Pope Francis has created cardinals twice - both in February - but with only 3 opens slots by the end of next February, it seems highly unlikely that he'll do it again next year.

However, by the end of the year, 10 more electors will age out - leaving 13 total open slots. At the time of the creations in 2014, there were 14 open slots and in 2015 there were 10.

So based on that and looking at the traditional times for such a consistory, I predict that the next consistory to create cardinals will be one held on Christ the King weekend in 2016 (19/20 November).

Now looking past that, in 2017 only 4 electors will age out - the last one in April. If I'm correct in the first prediction, there won't be one held in 2017.

2018 is a different story, with 7 cardinals losing their vote - the last one in June. My guess is there will be another consistory to create cardinals in the Spring of 2018.

Of course, I have no inside knowledge and the creation of cardinals is at the complete discretion of the Holy Father.

Related:

• List of Cardinal Electors by Age
• List of Previous Consistories to Create Cardinals

Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2015

This posts assumes that the plans announced yesterday for a Consistory to Create New Cardinals on 14 Feb 2015 are not changed and that there are no deaths.

On 15 Feb 2015, there will be 228 Living Cardinals with 125 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary. (Today it is 208 and 110, respectively.)

The average age of the Cardinals on that day will be 77.77 and the average of the electors will be 71.10 years old. (Today it is 78.19 and 71.50, respectively.)

The average length of service as a Cardinal on that day will be 11.08 years, 6.40 years if only considering electors. (Today it is 12.04 and 7.16 years, respectively.)

The number of Cardinal Electors will fall back to 120 on 28 February 2016, the day after Cardinal Mahony turns 80.

The youngest Cardinal will be Soane Patita Paini Mafi (Bishop of Tonga) who will be 53.1 years old when he is created.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2025; 1915-2025; and 1965-2025)
• Average Age (1585-2025; 1915-2025; and 1965-2025)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	110
15 Feb 2015	125
End of 2015	121
End of 2016	109
End of 2017	104
End of 2018	96

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote has been trending downward.

After the creation of the new Cardinals, 55% will be Electors (today it is 53%).

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations beyond what has been announced, on 27 Jun 2016, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (114 of 228). On 25 Aug 2016 it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (113 of 228).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

Cardinal Rebiba and Lineages

Many of ya'll have commented on the many episcopal lineages that end with Cardinal Rebiba. Charles Bransom has written on the topic here.

Just to give you an idea of how prevalent Rebiba descendants are:
The last 24 Popes (including both now living) are Rebiban. The last non-Rebiban was Pope Innocent XII who died in 1700.

Of the top 20 bishops in my databases by the number of bishops they consecrated (63 or more), all but 1 is Rebiban. The exception is Joaquín Fernández Cardinal de Portocarrero Mendoza who consecrated 64 bishops and died in 1760.

If you expand that to all bishops that consecrated 36 or more bishops - 50 in total - 42 are Rebiban.

95%+ of living bishops are descended from Cardinal Rebiba.

Cardinals Turning 80 (2014 edition)

Cardinal Hummes turned 80 yesterday and thus today he lost his right to vote in a conclave when one becomes necessary. (See When does a Cardinal become ineligible to Vote in a Conclave? for the details on that.)

He joins a list of 5 other Cardinals that also turned 80 earlier this year (Cardinals Vela Chiriboga, Re, Pham Minh Mân, Tettamanzi, and Monterisi).

There are 6 more Cardinals that turn 80 later this year. One more in August (Cardinal Amigo Vallejo), three in September (Cardinals Sardi, Cordes, and Rodé), and the last two in December (Cardinals Bertone and Darmaatmadja).

In 2015, only 5 Cardinals turn 80. But in 2016, there are 12. That number drops back to 5 in 2017. The table below summarizes the numbers.

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	117
End of 2014	111
End of 2015	106
End of 2016	94
End of 2017	89

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

The last group of new Cardinals was created this past February. There were 106 Cardinal Electors before that and 122 with the new additions. That suggests that the next Consistory to Create New Cardinals will be held towards the end of 2015, or at the latest, in 2016.

Cardinal that has voted in the most Conclaves?

Someone asked a good question: which cardinal has voted in the most conclaves?

Based on conclaves from 1400 to last year, Girolamo Cardinal Simoncelli is the winner - having voted in 10 different conclaves. He was born in 1522, elevated to Cardinal in 1553, and died in 1605.

It should be noted that the 16th century saw 17 conclaves (vs 8 in the 20th century). All of the top 10 are from that era.

If I limit it to more modern times (1900 to today), there are three cardinals that have voted in 4 conclaves each: Paul-Émile Cardinal Léger (1904-1991), Giuseppe Cardinal Siri (1906-1989), and Stefan Cardinal Wyszynski (1901-1981).

By strange coincidence, all three were created cardinals in the consistory on 12 January 1953 by Pope Pius XII, which was also his last.

If we include the 19th century, two more are added to the list with 4 each: Carlo Cardinal Oppizzoni (1769-1855) and Tommaso Cardinal Riario Sforza (1782-1857).

The 18th century sees the first two cardinals with more than 4: Alessandro Cardinal Albani (1692-1779) and Pietro Cardinal Ottoboni (1667-1740), both with 6 each. I should note that Cardinal Ottoboni's first conclave was in 1691.