Predicting the Next Consistory to Create Cardinals (updated Oct 2024)

Pope Francis has held a consistory to create new cardinals every year of his papacy with the exceptions of his first and 2021.

This year is already half over and there are a number of large events already scheduled. Notably a papal trip to Asia and Oceania (2 to 13 Sep), papal trip to Luxembourg and Belgium (26 to 29 Sep), the Synod (2 to 27 Oct), and the start of the Holy Year on 24 Dec.

So that leaves November and most of December available.

All that follows is pure speculation :-)

I think the most likely date is Sat 7 Dec (just before the Feast of the Immaculate Conception).

The announcement of the consistory has generally been 1 to 2 months in advance. Since I suspect that some of those attending the Synod might be on the list, I don't expect it before that concludes on Sun 27 Oct.

The following week there are several opportunities. The Angelus on Sun 27 Oct, General Audience Wed 30 Oct, and the events around All Saints and All Souls.

Note that on 7 Dec there will be 121 Cardinal-electors (out of 236 total), assuming no deaths. While that is above already the limit of 120, that limit has been widely disregarded in the past. See Cardinal Electors and Modern Limits for more details. 

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So, on 7 Oct 2024 Pope Francis announced his intention to create 21 new Cardinals on 8 Dec 2024! I was close!

On 12 Oct 2024, it was announced that the date was changed to my original prediction - 7 Dec 2024!

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 Here are some other posts and links that might be useful.

• Cardinal Stats and Charts
• Cardinal Electors and Modern Limits
• When does a Cardinal become ineligible to Vote in a Conclave?
• When does a Cardinal become a Cardinal?

Some Cardinal links to the main site that might be useful:

• Consistory to Create Cardinals - 8 Dec 2024
• Consistories to Create Cardinals

• by Rank: Cardinal-Bishops | Cardinal-Priests | Cardinal-Deacons
• Voting & Non-Voting
• Oldest and Youngest
• Seniority, by Priestly Ordination | Seniority, by Bishop Ordination
• Cardinal Titles: Currently Vacant

Possible USA Catholic Hierarchy Changes for 2024

• Cardinals
  • Seán Patrick Cardinal O’Malley, O.F.M. Cap., Archbishop of Boston, Massachusetts, turns 80 on 29 Jun. He is very likely to retire on or before that date.
  • Christophe Louis Yves Georges Cardinal Pierre, Apostolic Nuncio to United States of America turns 78 on 30 Jan. No indication when he will retire.
  • Wilton Daniel Cardinal Gregory, Archbishop of Washington, District of Columbia turned 76 on 7 Dec. While he is eligible to retire, I suspect he will remain in office.
  • Blase Joseph Cardinal Cupich, Archbishop of Chicago, Illinois turns 75 on 19 Mar. I suspect he will remain in his post for a few more years.
  • Daniel Nicholas Cardinal DiNardo, Archbishop of Galveston-Houston, Texas turns 75 on 23 May. His retirement is certainly possible, especially after some health issues about 5 years ago, but it is difficult to say.

• Archbishops (not already covered above)
  Over 75 (could retire at any time)
  • Archbishop Dennis Marion Schnurr, Archbishop of Cincinnati, Ohio turned 75 on 21 Jun 2023.
  • Archbishop Allen Henry Vigneron, Archbishop of Detroit, Michigan turned 75 on 21 Oct 2023.

• Turning 75 in 2024
  • Archbishop Jerome Edward Listecki, Archbishop of Milwaukee, Wisconsin turns 75 on 12 Mar.
  • Archbishop Thomas John Rodi, Archbishop of Mobile, Alabama turns 75 on 27 Mar.
  • Archbishop Leonard Paul Blair, Archbishop of Hartford, Connecticut turns 75 on 12 Apr.
    Received a Coadjutor, Archbishop Christopher James Coyne on 26 Jun 2023.
  • Archbishop Joseph Fred Naumann, Archbishop of Kansas City in Kansas turns 75 on 4 Jun.
  • Archbishop George Joseph Lucas, Archbishop of Omaha, Nebraska turns 75 on 12 Jun.
  • Archbishop Gregory Michael Aymond, Archbishop of New Orleans, Louisiana turns 75 on 12 Nov.

• Bishops (ordinaries)
  Over 75 (could retire at any time)
  • Bishop Dennis Joseph Sullivan, Bishop of Camden, New Jersey turned 75 on 17 Mar 2020.
  • Bishop Robert Peter Deeley, Bishop of Portland, Maine turned 75 on 18 Jun 2021.
  • Bishop Salvatore Ronald Matano, Bishop of Rochester, New York turned 75 on 15 Sep 2021.
  • Bishop Mark Edward Brennan, Bishop of Wheeling-Charleston, West Virginia turned 75 on 6 Feb 2022.
  • Bishop Ralph Walker Nickless, Bishop of Sioux City, Iowa turned 75 on 28 May 2022.
  • Bishop Liam Stephen Cary, Bishop of Baker, Oregon turned 75 on 21 Aug 2022.
  • Bishop Edward Bernard Scharfenberger, Bishop of Albany, New York turned 75 on 29 May 2023.
  • Bishop Patrick James Zurek, Bishop of Amarillo, Texas turned 75 on 17 Aug 2023.

• Turning 75 in 2024
  • Bishop Michael Richard Cote, Bishop of Norwich, Connecticut turns 75 on 19 Jun.
  • Bishop Clarence Richard Silva, Bishop of Honolulu, Hawaii turns 75 on 6 Aug
  • Bishop Glen John Provost, Bishop of Lake Charles, Louisiana turns 75 on 9 Aug.
  • Bishop William Michael Mulvey, Bishop of Corpus Christi, Texas turns 75 on 23 Aug.
  • Bishop David Allen Zubik, Bishop of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania turns 75 on 4 Sep.
  • Bishop James Anthony Tamayo, Bishop of Laredo, Texas turns 75 on 23 Oct.
  • Bishop David Dennis Kagan, Bishop of Bismarck, North Dakota turns 75 on 9 Nov.

Already Vacant
(All are Dioceses/Eparchies)

• Burlington, Vermont, since 26 Jun 2023
• Davenport, Iowa, since 26 Jul 2023
• Holy Protection of Mary of Phoenix (Ruthenian), Arizona, since 23 Aug 2021
• Knoxville, Tennessee, since 27 Jun 2023
• Steubenville, Ohio, since 28 Sep 2023
• Tyler, Texas, since 11 Nov 2023

Cardinal Njue as Cardinal-Elector (updated!)

With the recent release of  the Annuario Pontificio 2024 the whole situation has changed. Now, John Cardinal Njue, Archbishop Emeritus of Nairobi, Kenya, and Cardinal-Priest of Preziosissimo Sangue di Nostro Signore Gesù Cristo is shown with a birthdate of 1 Jan 1946 (see AP2024 p78). 

This resolves the previous issue completely.

Below is the original post for historical reasons.

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In a previous post, we had discussed when a Cardinal loses the right to vote in a Conclave. In brief, it depends on when a Cardinal reaches the age of 80.

We have an unusual situation with John Cardinal Njue, Archbishop Emeritus of Nairobi, Kenya, and Cardinal-Priest of Preziosissimo Sangue di Nostro Signore Gesù Cristo. In his case, we only know the year in which he was born (1944) - but not the month nor day.

So when does he reach the age of 80?

In my opinion, in fairness to Cardinal Njue, one must treat him as if he was born on the last day of the year 1944 - thus losing his vote on 1 Jan 2025 (see the above linked post for details).

I note that on the Vatican website, there is a List of Cardinals in order of Age and on that list his birth date is listed as "31-12-1944" but the bios to which it links only gives the year of birth. This would seem to suggest they agree with my view.

God willing, the need for a Conclave in 2024 will not occur and complete clarification of the issue will not be neccessary.

Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2022

This posts assumes that there are no deaths among the current Cardinals.

As of today (6 Mar 2022, there are be 212 Living Cardinals with 119 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals is 79.0 and the average of the electors is 73.0 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal is 12.1 years, 8.8 years if only considering electors.

The youngest Cardinal is Dieudonné Nzapalainga, C.S.Sp. (Archbishop of Bangui) who is about to turn 55 (on 14 Mar).

The oldest Cardinal is Jozef Tomko (President Emeritus of the Pontifical Committee for International Eucharistic Congresses) who is about to turn 98 (on 11 Mar).

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2032; 1915-2032; and 1965-2032)
• Average Age (1585-2032; 1915-2032; and 1965-2032)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	119
End of 2022	110
End of 2023	99
End of 2024	86
End of 2025	74

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote had been trending downward. However, it has rebounded a bit in the recent times with the deaths of a number of the elderly Cardinals and a significant number of new creations.

Today, 56.1% are Electors. At the lowest point, it was 51.7% (before the November 2016 Consistory).

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations, on 3 Jun 2023, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (106 of 212). The following month it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (105 of 212).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

New Cardinals?

Pope Francis has created new Cardinals every year of his papacy except the first (2013) and last year (2021). I strongly suspect there will be a consistory to create cardinals around 28 Jun 2022 (or perhaps later in the Fall).

Next Consistory to Create Cardinals (predictions)

Currently there are 123 Cardinal Electors out of a total of 223 living Cardinals.

Nine Cardinal Electors will turn 80 (and thus lose their right to vote) by mid-October, bringing the Elector count down to 114.

The last two were held in late June, but at that point this year, the count will be at 120 Electors - making it a less likely time frame.

So I think that just before Christ the King Solemnity (24 November 2019) will be the next Consistory to Create Cardinals.

After that, it is a bit more tricky. Only 4 Cardinals turn 80 in 2020. In 2021, another 6 reach that age. So I think there will be another Consistory to Create new Cardinals just before Christ the King Solemnity 2021.

Finally, in 2022, 11 more Cardinals reach the age limit, although the majority are in the second half of the year. So yet another late year consistory is possible in 2022.

2023 is similar, with 11 Cardinals scheduled to reach the age limit.

Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2017

This posts assumes that there are no deaths among the current Cardinals.

As of today (5 Feb 2017, there are be 226 Living Cardinals with 119 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals is 78.16 and the average of the electors is 71.18 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal is 11.27 years, 6.39 years if only considering electors.

The youngest Cardinal is Dieudonné Nzapalainga, C.S.Sp. (Archbishop of Bangui) who will turn 50 years old on 14 March.

The oldest Cardinal is José de Jesús Pimiento Rodriguez (Archbishop Emeritus of Manizales) who will turn 98 on the 18th of this month.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2027; 1915-2027; and 1965-2027)
• Average Age (1585-2027; 1915-2027; and 1965-2027)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	119
End of 2017	116
End of 2018	109
End of 2019	99

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

For a prediction of when the next batch of Cardinals will be created, please see this post.

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote has been trending downward.

Today, 52.2% are Electors.

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations, on 7 Mar 2018, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (113 of 226). On 30 Mar 2018 it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (112 of 226).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

Predicting New Cardinals: 2018 and 2019

As of today, there are 226 living Cardinals. Of those, 120 have the right to vote in a Conclave when one becomes necessary (aka, they have not yet turned 80 years old). These are called the Cardinal Electors.

The limit of the number of Cardinal Electors is 120, although the Pope can ignore that if he so desires.

This year (2017) only four Cardinal Electors turn 80. That makes a consistory to create new cardinals this year unlikely.

Next year (2018) is a different story - seven additional Cardinals turn 80. In an odd streak of luck, all of them fall in the first half of the year.

Assuming no deaths, that means that 11 Cardinal Elector "slots" will be available by June, 2018. So I'm predicting a Consistory to Create New Cardinals in late Spring or early Summer 2018.

With the effort of Pope Francis to de-emphasize the Roman aspect of the pallium distribution, perhaps the weekend after the Solemnity of Sts. Peter and Paul would be a good time.

In 2019, an additional 11 Cardinal Electors turn 80. Four of those fall in October. Thus I'm predicting another Consistory to Create New Cardinals in late Fall 2019.

The weekend of Christ the King (23-24 Nov) would be an obvious choice but there are other options such as All Saints/All Souls or the Dedication of the Lateran Basilica.

(Note I had previously predicted a consistory in the "Spring of 2018" in this post back in November 2015.)

Of course, I have no inside knowledge and the creation of cardinals is at the complete discretion of the Holy Father.

Related:

• List of Cardinal Electors by Age
• List of Previous Consistories to Create Cardinals

Prediction: Next Consistory to Create Cardinals

As this liturgical year wraps up, lets take a look at next year and the College of Cardinals. Currently there are 118 electors among the 218 living cardinals, leaving only 2 open "slots" for new voting age cardinals. Assuming no deaths, that will not change until 28 Feb 2016 when Cardinal Mahony loses his elector status.

Pope Francis has created cardinals twice - both in February - but with only 3 opens slots by the end of next February, it seems highly unlikely that he'll do it again next year.

However, by the end of the year, 10 more electors will age out - leaving 13 total open slots. At the time of the creations in 2014, there were 14 open slots and in 2015 there were 10.

So based on that and looking at the traditional times for such a consistory, I predict that the next consistory to create cardinals will be one held on Christ the King weekend in 2016 (19/20 November).

Now looking past that, in 2017 only 4 electors will age out - the last one in April. If I'm correct in the first prediction, there won't be one held in 2017.

2018 is a different story, with 7 cardinals losing their vote - the last one in June. My guess is there will be another consistory to create cardinals in the Spring of 2018.

Of course, I have no inside knowledge and the creation of cardinals is at the complete discretion of the Holy Father.

Related:

• List of Cardinal Electors by Age
• List of Previous Consistories to Create Cardinals

Cardinals Turning 80 (2014 edition)

Cardinal Hummes turned 80 yesterday and thus today he lost his right to vote in a conclave when one becomes necessary. (See When does a Cardinal become ineligible to Vote in a Conclave? for the details on that.)

He joins a list of 5 other Cardinals that also turned 80 earlier this year (Cardinals Vela Chiriboga, Re, Pham Minh Mân, Tettamanzi, and Monterisi).

There are 6 more Cardinals that turn 80 later this year. One more in August (Cardinal Amigo Vallejo), three in September (Cardinals Sardi, Cordes, and Rodé), and the last two in December (Cardinals Bertone and Darmaatmadja).

In 2015, only 5 Cardinals turn 80. But in 2016, there are 12. That number drops back to 5 in 2017. The table below summarizes the numbers.

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	117
End of 2014	111
End of 2015	106
End of 2016	94
End of 2017	89

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

The last group of new Cardinals was created this past February. There were 106 Cardinal Electors before that and 122 with the new additions. That suggests that the next Consistory to Create New Cardinals will be held towards the end of 2015, or at the latest, in 2016.

The Status of Sydney (updated!)

On Monday, George Cardinal Pell was named as the first Prefect (head) of a new Vatican office: the Secretariat for the Economy. He will actually take up the post toward the end of March.

What has been left quite unclear is whether Cardinal Pell remains as Archbishop of Sydney.

The announcement itself does not use the language which is customary when the newly named is leaving their previous post. In addition on that day, Cardinal Pell sent a letter to the staff in Sydney and he signed it "Archbishop of Sydney".

Various news outlets have had conflicting reports.

The Apostolic Nuncio (Archbishop Paul Gallagher) has indicated that Sydney is not currently vacant (reported in the Parramatta Sun on 26 Feb).

And yet the Sydney Archdiocese has announced the naming of an Administrator on 27 Feb.

So at this point I have to say that I do not know for certain if Sydney is vacant. I will continue to list Cardinal Pell as the Archbishop until there is a clear official statement.
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Update: the nunciature today released as statement that settles the matter. It reads, in part:

"...appointed as Apostolic Administrator "Sede Vacante" of the Archdiocese of Sydney..."

There can only be an Ap. Admin. "Sede Vacante" if the see is in fact vacant. Thus Cardinal Pell is now Archbishop Emeritus of Sydney.

7 New Cardinal-Priests in October?

No, I am not suggesting a date for an upcoming Consistory to create cardinals (although that too is a possibility, see below). Rather, due to Canon 350 §5, there are seven existing Cardinal-Deacons that will become eligble to become Cardinal-Priests on 21 Oct 2013 (10 years after they were created Cardinal-Deacons).

The last such elevation was 6 Cardinal-Deacons becoming Cardinal-Priests on 21 February 2011. In that case, all 6 retained their same title, each being elevated pro hac vice.

In the past, these elevations have been almost automatic, it remains to be seen if the same will be true under Pope Francis. 

The seven who will be eligible are (with their current deaconry):

• Jean-Louis Pierre Cardinal Tauran, Sant’Apollinare alle Terme Neroniane-Alessandrine
• Renato Raffaele Cardinal Martino, San Francesco di Paola ai Monti
• Francesco Cardinal Marchisano, Santa Lucia del Gonfalone
• Julián Cardinal Herranz Casado, Sant’Eugenio
• Javier Cardinal Lozano Barragán, San Michele Arcangelo
• Attilio Cardinal Nicora, San Filippo Neri in Eurosia
• Georges Marie Martin Cardinal Cottier, O.P., Santi Domenico e Sisto

Regarding a Consistory to create new Cardinals, as of 20 Oct 2013, there will only be 109 Cardinal Electors. This is low enough that a consistory becomes likely. It is extremely likely before the end of 2014, at that point there would only be 97 Cardinal Electors, a number not seen since the months leading up to the February 2001 consistory.

All that being said, it is always hard to predict anything about the first consistory to create cardinals of a new Pope.

Conclave 2013: notes (part 1)

Assuming no Cardinals die before the Conclave, here is some data:

• 117 Cardinal Electors (of 209 living)
• 78 votes are required for election (2/3rds) [UDG #62]
• 51 of the 117 electors were named by Pope John Paul II, the remaining 66 were named by Pope Benedict XVI
• of the 10 Cardinal-Bishops, only 4 are electors:
1. Giovanni Battista Cardinal Re, of Sabina-Poggio Mirteto
2. Tarcisio Pietro Evasio Cardinal Bertone, S.D.B, of Frascati, Secretary of State, Chamberlain (Camerlengo)
3. Antonios Cardinal Naguib, Coptic Patriarch Emeritus
4. Béchara Boutros Cardinal Raï, O.M.M., Maronite Patriarch
• Since both the Dean and Vice-Dean (Subdean) are over 80, they can not enter the Conclave. The senior Cardinal Bishop will be Giovanni Battista Cardinal Re

While no information on the date of the Conclave has been provided, we have some idea from UDG. The Pope indicated his resignation was effective on 28 February 2013 at 8pm (local time, Rome). According to UDG #37, the Conclave could start as early as the night of 15 March or as late as the night of 20 March.

I suspect that it will begin on either Saturday 16 March or Monday 18 March.

The length, of course, is not knowable.  Recent Conclaves have tended to be fairly short - usually a few days.

That would suggest that a new Pope is possible by the Solemnity of St. Joseph (19 March), likely before Palm Sunday (24 March), and almost certainly by Easter (31 March).

New Cardinals in 2012, but when?

Today, the College of Cardinals has 193 members, of which 112 are eligible to vote should a conclave become necessary.

By the end of 2011, that number drops to 110. At the end of 2012, it would be only 97 voting Cardinals.

Pope Benedict XVI has held 3 consistories to create cardinals so far: in March 2006, November 2007, and November 2010.

At the time of each, the number of electors was: 109, 103, and 101, respectively.

This strongly suggests that Pope Benedict's next creation of cardinals will take place next year. So the next question, is more precisely, when?

Of course, that is a decision of the Holy Father himself, but we can consider some of the factors that might influence the decision.

Toward the end of March (as in 2006) might be a good time. There would be 107 electors at that point, providing roughly 13 slots to fill. However, with the early Easter (8 April), this time frame seems unlikely.

But the early Easter does suggest another option: a date around Ascension or Pentecost (mid to late May). That time frame has 105 electors - leaving roughly 15 spots available.

After that are the summer months, but Pope Benedict, like so many Romans, usually escapes the heat and heads to the countryside.

October might be an option, but next year there will be many special events relating to the 50th anniversary of the beginning of the Second Vatican Council.

Another option is the end of November (as in 2007 and 2010), at that point there would be only 98 electors - providing roughly 22 slots.

So with all that laid out, my suggestion of the most likely dates are 1) the weekend of 26/27 May (Pentecost) or 2) the weekend of 24/25 November (Christ the King). Of the two, the former seems the most likely.

The next question I leave to others for now, namely: who will be included?

Predicting the Next Consistories to Create Cardinals

So the Consistory to create new cardinals in 2010 is now history. Its time to look ahead again and see if the next one (or three) can be predicted.

Lets take a quick look at the history of Pope Benedict XVI's cardinal creating consistories.

• 24 Mar 2006: Created 12 voting, 3 non-voting; before: 178 living, 109 voting
  
• 24 Nov 2007: Created 18 voting, 5 non-voting (plus 1 that died before the consistory); before: 178 living, 103 voting
  
• 20 Nov 2010: Created 20 voting, 4 non-voting; before: 179 living, 101 voting
  

In recent history, these consistories typically fall near (often the day before) a major feast. For Benedict, it has been the Annunciation of the Lord (2006) and Christ the King (2007, 2010). Pope John Paul II used Sts Peter & Paul (1979, 1988, 1991), Presentation of the Lord (1983), Pentecost (1985), Christ the King (1994), and the 25th Anniversary of his election to the papacy (2003).

So now for the serious guess-work. The numbers below assume no voting age cardinals die and that at each consistory the number of voting cardinals becomes 120.

Scenario A:

1. Corpus Christi, 2012 (10 Jun): 15 open voting slots
   
2. Christ the King, 2013 (24 Nov): 16 open voting slots
   
3. Christ the King, 2015 (22 Nov): 19 open voting slots
   

Scenario B:

1. Corpus Christi, 2012 (10 Jun): 15 open voting slots
   
2. Pentecost, 2014 (19 May): 21 open voting slots
   
3. Pentecost, 2016 (15 May): 20 open voting slots
   

Scenario C:

1. Christ the King, 2012 (25 Nov): 21 open voting slots
   
2. Pentecost, 2014 (19 May): 15 open voting slots
   
3. Pentecost, 2016 (15 May): 19 open voting slots
   

Scenario D:

1. Christ the King, 2012 (25 Nov): 21 open voting slots
   
2. Christ the King, 2014 (23 Nov): 21 open voting slots
   
3. Christ the King, 2016 (20 Nov): 21 open voting slots
   

I think that Scenario A is the most likely. Followed by C, B, and D. Of course, I could be wrong about all of them.

Province Overviews

My last set of province overviews were written in late 2007 through early 2008. If time permits I will be writting a new set in the coming weeks.

I'll point out a post I wrote explaining some of my thinking about the overviews for those that are interested.

I should also note that I still stand by my prediction of a consistory to create cardinals in the coming year.

Vacancy: Cardinal-Bishop of Palestrina

Within the inner circle of the Pope (the College of Cardinals) is another much smaller circle: the Cardinal-Bishops. This group of 6 includes the Dean and Vice-Dean (sometimes called Sub-Dean) of the College of Cardinals.¹

These 6 are often quite well known and today is no exception. The current Cardinal-Bishops are: Cardinals Sodano, Etchegaray, Re, Arinze, and Bertone.

Cardinal Bertone was elevated in May taking the place left open by the death of Cardinal López Trujillo.

Pope Benedict XVI has only named one other Cardinal-Bishop and that was to replace himself as Cardinal-Bishop of Velletri-Segni after his election to the papacy. Cardinal Arinze was his selection. ²

Which leaves the curious case of the Cardinal-Bishop of Palestrina. In the two previous vacancies, the replacement was named within a month. But Cardinal Gantin (the last holder of this office) died more than 6 months ago.

There are, however, signs that it may soon be filled. Yesterday among the people who had audiences with the Pope two names stood out. First, Bishop Domenico Sigalini who is the Bishop of Palestrina. He is the ordinary of the diocese which goes with the vacant Cardinal-Bishop title.

The other name that I noticed was Agostino Cardinal Vallini, Vicar General of the Diocese of Rome. I do not mean to suggest that I have any inside information - I do not. But Cardinal Vallini, imo, would be an interesting choice for the vacancy.

In any event, because of the length of the vacancy and the audience with Bishop Sigalini, I suspect that the next fortnight will see this title filled.

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1. I should note that technically Patriarchs that are Cardinals automatically have the rank of Cardinal-Bishop as well, but they rarely have the influence of the suburbican 6.
2. Again I should note that Cardinal Delly was named a Cardinal in the consistory of 2007 and became a Cardinal-Bishop by virtue of his being the Patriarch of Babylon (Chaldean).

The Next Consistory to Create Cardinals

While it is far too early to discern a reasonable pattern in consistory timing - it would be down right boring not to guess anyway. So here goes.

First, some background: there have only been 2 under Pope Benedict XVI so far. One in 2006 and one in 2007.

On 24 March 2006, 12 new cardinal electors were created along with 3 non-voting cardinals. (Summary of the consistory is here.) This brought the total number of cardinal electors to 120.

On 24 November 2007, 18 new cardinal electors were created along with 5 non-voting cardinals. (Summary of the consistory is here.) In addition, Pope Benedict XVI indicating that he had intended to name a 6th non-voting cardinal, but that he had died shortly before the announcement.

It should also be noted that Pope Benedict XVI indicated his intention to abrogate the 120 limit by one at the announcement of the last consistory. But the death of Cardinal Hamao occurred between the announcement and the consistory itself. Thus with the new electors, the total stands at 120 electors.

The 2 consistories were 20 months apart. If he holds to that timing, the next one would be roughly summer of 2009.

But if Pope Benedict XVI continues to try to hold to roughly 120 cardinal electors, there simply won't be many slots available at that time. That is why I don't think there will be another consistory (assuming B16 remains in good health) until 2010.

Assuming no one dies, next year (2008) 3 cardinal elector spots open up. In 2009, an additional 4 slots open up. But, if there was a consistory in late summer 2009, there would only be 6 slots available.

That changes in 2010, with 11 additional slots opening. To break it down a bit more, by the end of March, 2010 - there would be a total of 11 slots open. But by the end of 2010, that reaches 18 total slots available.

So, that's why I'm predicting the next consistory will be held in 2010, sometime after the end of March. A mid-summer or fall consistory seems most likely. And if I had to be more specific, the last week of November seems like a good time.