Conclave 2013: notes (part 1)

Assuming no Cardinals die before the Conclave, here is some data:

• 117 Cardinal Electors (of 209 living)
• 78 votes are required for election (2/3rds) [UDG #62]
• 51 of the 117 electors were named by Pope John Paul II, the remaining 66 were named by Pope Benedict XVI
• of the 10 Cardinal-Bishops, only 4 are electors:
1. Giovanni Battista Cardinal Re, of Sabina-Poggio Mirteto
2. Tarcisio Pietro Evasio Cardinal Bertone, S.D.B, of Frascati, Secretary of State, Chamberlain (Camerlengo)
3. Antonios Cardinal Naguib, Coptic Patriarch Emeritus
4. Béchara Boutros Cardinal Raï, O.M.M., Maronite Patriarch
• Since both the Dean and Vice-Dean (Subdean) are over 80, they can not enter the Conclave. The senior Cardinal Bishop will be Giovanni Battista Cardinal Re

While no information on the date of the Conclave has been provided, we have some idea from UDG. The Pope indicated his resignation was effective on 28 February 2013 at 8pm (local time, Rome). According to UDG #37, the Conclave could start as early as the night of 15 March or as late as the night of 20 March.

I suspect that it will begin on either Saturday 16 March or Monday 18 March.

The length, of course, is not knowable.  Recent Conclaves have tended to be fairly short - usually a few days.

That would suggest that a new Pope is possible by the Solemnity of St. Joseph (19 March), likely before Palm Sunday (24 March), and almost certainly by Easter (31 March).