Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2019

This posts assumes that there are no deaths among the current Cardinals.

As of today (8 Dec 2019, there are be 224 Living Cardinals with 124 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary.

The average age of the Cardinals is 78.5 and the average of the electors is 71.8 years old.

The average length of service as a Cardinal is 11.3 years, 7.3 years if only considering electors.

The youngest Cardinal is Dieudonné Nzapalainga, C.S.Sp. (Archbishop of Bangui) who is 52.

The oldest Cardinal is Albert Vanhoye, S.J. (Secretary Emeritus of the Pontifical Biblical Commission) who is 96.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2029; 1915-2029; and 1965-2029)
• Average Age (1585-2029; 1915-2029; and 1965-2029)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	124
End of 2020	120
End of 2021	114
End of 2022	103

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote had been trending downward. However, it has rebounded a bit in the last few years with the deaths of a number of the elderly Cardinals and a significant number of new creations.

Today, 55.4% are Electors. At the lowest point, it was 51.7% (before the November 2016 Consistory).

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations, on 8 Apr 2022, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (112 of 224). Six days later it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (111 of 224).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

Religious Orders in Recent Times (top dozen, charts, 2019)

I've updated a few charts that look at the number of priests and members of religious orders over the last several decades. To avoid it looking like spaghetti, I only used the top dozen orders based on number of priests*. I also split the top 4 from the other 8 - there is very little overlap between the two and it makes the charts much clearer.

The charts are posted here. (.pdf format)

The Jesuits were the first order (of the top dozen) to have lost more than half of their members from their recent high point (from 36,038 in 1966 to 17,908 in 2011). They are currently at 15,842 members, down 56% from the all time high.

One might note that there is no significant change since Pope Francis (a Jesuit) became Pope. In fairness, it normally takes several years for any event in a religious order (or diocese) to show in the vocation numbers.

Two more orders reached that milestone in 2016: Franciscans (now down 51%) and Oblates of Mary Immaculate (now down 51%).

Two more orders are very close to reaching that point: Redemptorists (down 47%) and Vincentians/Lazarists (down 41%). Both showed a small drop in the last year.

In terms of priests, only one order has reached that point, the Benedictines which are down 52% from their recent high point (from 7,058 in the early 1970s to 3,414 in 2018).

Three other orders are in danger of reaching that point: the Oblates of Mary Immaculate (down 47%), Jesuits (down 46%), and the Franciscans (down 45%).

In the top dozen, only one order, Divine Word Missionaries, has hit its high mark in terms of members in recent years (6,131 in 2009).

In terms of priests, two orders hit their highest mark in 2016: Divine Word Missionaries with 4,231 and Discalced Carmelites with 2,937.

Overall, adding all of the top 12 together, the all time high was in 1966 with 160,926 total members. In 2018, that had dropped 42% to 93,596. In terms of priests, the high was in 1971 with 95,411 total priests. In 2018, that had dropped 32% to 64,821.

If current trends continue, in about 10 years, the Jesuits will lose the title of largest religious order to the Salesians of Saint John Bosco. First by the number of members and within a few years by number of priests as well.

(* Out of curiosity I checked the top dozen orders based on number of members - it was the same dozen, but in a slightly different order.)

Note that only Male Religious Orders were included because that happens to be the data I have readily available. As time permits, I'll try to do similar charts for Female Religious Orders.

Next Consistory to Create Cardinals (predictions)

Currently there are 123 Cardinal Electors out of a total of 223 living Cardinals.

Nine Cardinal Electors will turn 80 (and thus lose their right to vote) by mid-October, bringing the Elector count down to 114.

The last two were held in late June, but at that point this year, the count will be at 120 Electors - making it a less likely time frame.

So I think that just before Christ the King Solemnity (24 November 2019) will be the next Consistory to Create Cardinals.

After that, it is a bit more tricky. Only 4 Cardinals turn 80 in 2020. In 2021, another 6 reach that age. So I think there will be another Consistory to Create new Cardinals just before Christ the King Solemnity 2021.

Finally, in 2022, 11 more Cardinals reach the age limit, although the majority are in the second half of the year. So yet another late year consistory is possible in 2022.

2023 is similar, with 11 Cardinals scheduled to reach the age limit.