Happy (American) Pi Day (and Minute)

Happy (American) Pi Day!

Using American style dates, today is 3/14/15 ... and this is being posted at 9:26 am local time :-)

Math Geeks Unite

Cardinal Stats and Charts, 2015

This posts assumes that the plans announced yesterday for a Consistory to Create New Cardinals on 14 Feb 2015 are not changed and that there are no deaths.

On 15 Feb 2015, there will be 228 Living Cardinals with 125 eligible to vote in a conclave when that should become necessary. (Today it is 208 and 110, respectively.)

The average age of the Cardinals on that day will be 77.77 and the average of the electors will be 71.10 years old. (Today it is 78.19 and 71.50, respectively.)

The average length of service as a Cardinal on that day will be 11.08 years, 6.40 years if only considering electors. (Today it is 12.04 and 7.16 years, respectively.)

The number of Cardinal Electors will fall back to 120 on 28 February 2016, the day after Cardinal Mahony turns 80.

The youngest Cardinal will be Soane Patita Paini Mafi (Bishop of Tonga) who will be 53.1 years old when he is created.

I've posted an updated version of the Cardinal Charts (warning: PDF format).

The charts are:

• Number of Cardinals (1585-2025; 1915-2025; and 1965-2025)
• Average Age (1585-2025; 1915-2025; and 1965-2025)
  

Cardinals Turning 80

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	110
15 Feb 2015	125
End of 2015	121
End of 2016	109
End of 2017	104
End of 2018	96

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

Cardinal-Electors as Percent of the College

With the introduction of the age limit for Cardinals to vote in a conclave, the percent of Cardinals eligible to vote has been trending downward.

After the creation of the new Cardinals, 55% will be Electors (today it is 53%).

Assuming no Cardinal deaths and no new creations beyond what has been announced, on 27 Jun 2016, Cardinal-Electors will be 50% (114 of 228). On 25 Aug 2016 it will fall below 50% for the first time ever (113 of 228).

Given that deaths of non-Electors are more likely, the dates will likely be later than those given above.

Percent of New Bishops from Religious Orders

Someone recently asked about the percent of new bishops that were from religious orders under the current Pope.

To simplify the statistics, I used the years from 2000 to 2014, ignoring the years that had a papal transition (2005 and 2013). The biggest problem is this leaves us with a small data set (1 almost complete year) for Pope Francis. A proper analysis will have to wait a few more years.

Here are the results, the percent of newly consecrated bishops from a religious order:
Pope Francis 29.7%
Pope Benedict XVI 24.9% (Low 19.2%, High 30.7%)
Pope John Paul II 25.0% (Low 20.2%, High 29.9%).

So it is true that the percent is higher for Pope Francis, but the annual variability of the percentages for the previous popes suggests it may not be significant. Both Pope Benedict XVI and Pope John Paul II had years with a percentage higher than the year for Pope Francis.

Pope	Year	% Religious
F	2014	29.7%
B16/F	2013	22.0%
B16	2012	21.0%
B16	2011	19.7%
B16	2010	25.2%
B16	2009	29.4%
B16	2008	19.2%
B16	2007	30.7%
B16	2006	28.2%
JP2/B16	2005	26.5%
JP2	2004	21.4%
JP2	2003	20.2%
JP2	2002	27.5%
JP2	2001	25.9%
JP2	2000	29.9%

Cardinal Rebiba and Lineages

Many of ya'll have commented on the many episcopal lineages that end with Cardinal Rebiba. Charles Bransom has written on the topic here.

Just to give you an idea of how prevalent Rebiba descendants are:
The last 24 Popes (including both now living) are Rebiban. The last non-Rebiban was Pope Innocent XII who died in 1700.

Of the top 20 bishops in my databases by the number of bishops they consecrated (63 or more), all but 1 is Rebiban. The exception is Joaquín Fernández Cardinal de Portocarrero Mendoza who consecrated 64 bishops and died in 1760.

If you expand that to all bishops that consecrated 36 or more bishops - 50 in total - 42 are Rebiban.

95%+ of living bishops are descended from Cardinal Rebiba.

Cardinals Turning 80 (2014 edition)

Cardinal Hummes turned 80 yesterday and thus today he lost his right to vote in a conclave when one becomes necessary. (See When does a Cardinal become ineligible to Vote in a Conclave? for the details on that.)

He joins a list of 5 other Cardinals that also turned 80 earlier this year (Cardinals Vela Chiriboga, Re, Pham Minh Mân, Tettamanzi, and Monterisi).

There are 6 more Cardinals that turn 80 later this year. One more in August (Cardinal Amigo Vallejo), three in September (Cardinals Sardi, Cordes, and Rodé), and the last two in December (Cardinals Bertone and Darmaatmadja).

In 2015, only 5 Cardinals turn 80. But in 2016, there are 12. That number drops back to 5 in 2017. The table below summarizes the numbers.

When	Cardinal Electors
Now	117
End of 2014	111
End of 2015	106
End of 2016	94
End of 2017	89

(the table assumes no deaths nor new Cardinal Electors)

The last group of new Cardinals was created this past February. There were 106 Cardinal Electors before that and 122 with the new additions. That suggests that the next Consistory to Create New Cardinals will be held towards the end of 2015, or at the latest, in 2016.

Cardinal that has voted in the most Conclaves?

Someone asked a good question: which cardinal has voted in the most conclaves?

Based on conclaves from 1400 to last year, Girolamo Cardinal Simoncelli is the winner - having voted in 10 different conclaves. He was born in 1522, elevated to Cardinal in 1553, and died in 1605.

It should be noted that the 16th century saw 17 conclaves (vs 8 in the 20th century). All of the top 10 are from that era.

If I limit it to more modern times (1900 to today), there are three cardinals that have voted in 4 conclaves each: Paul-Émile Cardinal Léger (1904-1991), Giuseppe Cardinal Siri (1906-1989), and Stefan Cardinal Wyszynski (1901-1981).

By strange coincidence, all three were created cardinals in the consistory on 12 January 1953 by Pope Pius XII, which was also his last.

If we include the 19th century, two more are added to the list with 4 each: Carlo Cardinal Oppizzoni (1769-1855) and Tommaso Cardinal Riario Sforza (1782-1857).

The 18th century sees the first two cardinals with more than 4: Alessandro Cardinal Albani (1692-1779) and Pietro Cardinal Ottoboni (1667-1740), both with 6 each. I should note that Cardinal Ottoboni's first conclave was in 1691.

Cardinal Deaths in 2014

Today we lost our third Cardinal of the year. That is not an outrageously large number, but there is something unusual - all three were retired Patriarchs.

12 Mar	78.0	José da Cruz Cardinal Policarpo †	Patriarch Emeritus of Lisboa {Lisbon}, Portugal
8 Apr	86.5	Emmanuel III (Emmanuel-Karim) Cardinal Delly †	Patriarch Emeritus of Babylon {Babilonia} (Chaldean), Iraq
12 May	88.8	Marco Cardinal Cé †	Patriarch Emeritus of Venezia {Venice}, Italy

May they all rest in peace.