7 New Cardinal-Priests in October?

No, I am not suggesting a date for an upcoming Consistory to create cardinals (although that too is a possibility, see below). Rather, due to Canon 350 §5, there are seven existing Cardinal-Deacons that will become eligble to become Cardinal-Priests on 21 Oct 2013 (10 years after they were created Cardinal-Deacons).

The last such elevation was 6 Cardinal-Deacons becoming Cardinal-Priests on 21 February 2011. In that case, all 6 retained their same title, each being elevated pro hac vice.

In the past, these elevations have been almost automatic, it remains to be seen if the same will be true under Pope Francis. 

The seven who will be eligible are (with their current deaconry):

• Jean-Louis Pierre Cardinal Tauran, Sant’Apollinare alle Terme Neroniane-Alessandrine
• Renato Raffaele Cardinal Martino, San Francesco di Paola ai Monti
• Francesco Cardinal Marchisano, Santa Lucia del Gonfalone
• Julián Cardinal Herranz Casado, Sant’Eugenio
• Javier Cardinal Lozano Barragán, San Michele Arcangelo
• Attilio Cardinal Nicora, San Filippo Neri in Eurosia
• Georges Marie Martin Cardinal Cottier, O.P., Santi Domenico e Sisto

Regarding a Consistory to create new Cardinals, as of 20 Oct 2013, there will only be 109 Cardinal Electors. This is low enough that a consistory becomes likely. It is extremely likely before the end of 2014, at that point there would only be 97 Cardinal Electors, a number not seen since the months leading up to the February 2001 consistory.

All that being said, it is always hard to predict anything about the first consistory to create cardinals of a new Pope.

The Bishops of Pope John Paul I

Pope John Paul I served as Pope for just over a month in 1978.

During that short pontificate he named a number of bishops and gave others new roles. Here is a list of those he appointed, in order of appointment:

• Donato Squicciarini, named Apostolic Nuncio to Burundi and titular archbishop on 31 Aug. Died on 5 Mar 2006 after serving as a bishop for 27 years.
• Eustathe Joseph Mounayer, already a bishop, named Archbishop of Damas (Syrian) on 4 Sep. Died on 16 Feb 2007 having served as a bishop for 35 years.
• Ireneo A. Amantillo, C.SS.R., already a bishop, named Bishop of Tandag on 6 Sep. Resigned in 2001 and still living.
• Giovanni Cheli, named a titular archbishop on 8 Sep and later a cardinal by Pope John Paul II. Died in 2013 after serving as a bishop for 34 years.
• Didier-Léon Marchand, named Bishop of Valence (-Die-Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux) on 8 Sep. Retired in 2001 and still living.
• Joseph Dao, named Bishop of Kayes on 12 Sep. He died in 2011 after having served as a bishop for 32 years.
• Rémy Augustin, S.M.M., already a bishop, named Bishop of Port-de-Paix on 18 Sep. He died in 1983 having served as a bishop for 29 years.
• François Colímon, S.M.M., named Coadjutor Bishop of Port-de-Paix on 18 Sep. He later succeeded and eventually resigned in 2008. He is still living.
• Adam Dyczkowski, named Auxiliary Bishop of Wroclaw {Breslavia} on 19 Sep. He was later named to other posts and eventually retired in 2007. He is still living.
• Jacques André Marie Jullien, named Bishop of Beauvais (-Noyon-Senlis) on 20 Sep. He was later named an archbishop. He died in 2012 having served as a bishop for 34 years.
• Jerzy Stroba, already a bishop, named Archbishop of Poznan on 21 Sep. He died in 1999, having served as a bishop for 40 years.
• Javier Azagra Labiano, already a bishop, named Bishop of Cartagena (en España) on 23 Sep. He retired in 1998 and is still living.
• Augusto César Alves Ferreira da Silva, C.M., already a bishop, named Bishop of Portalegre-Castelo Branco on 25 Sep. He resigned in 2004 and is still living.
• Alphonse U Than Aung, already a bishop, named Archbishop of Mandalay on 25 Sep. He died in 2004 having served as a bishop for 29 years.

Of those 14, only 6 are still living. Half (7) of the 14 were already bishops.

Religious Orders in Recent Times (top dozen, charts)

I've created a few charts that look at the number of priests and members of religious orders over the last several decades. To avoid it looking like spaghetti, I only used the top dozen orders based on number of priests*. I also split the top 4 from the other 8 - there is very little overlap between the two and it makes the charts much clearer.

The charts are posted here. (.pdf format)

On the number of priests, data mostly goes back to 1966 through 2012. The overall trend appears downward (-30%), but there are several exceptions.

The Salesians (-1%), Conventual Franciscans (+5%), and Discalced Carmelites (+13%) have basically been stable over the entire time period. The Divine Word Missionaries actually had a substantial (38%) increase.

The number of members data goes from 1950 to 2012, generally. Again, the overall trend is downward (-28%), but there are also exceptions. The most obvious difference from the previous charts is that thanks to the extra 15 years of data, it is clear that there was a substantial bump up across the board leading into the mid-1960s which then fell away in later years.

The exceptions to the trend are: Conventual Franciscans (+26%), Discalced Carmelites (+28%), and Divine Word Missionaries (+45%). Salesians deserve a mention again have only a small loss (-5%).

If I look at the overall trend from the high point of each order through the most current data, the trend looks much worse: down 39% overall.

From this perspective, even our previous exceptions have a slight downward tilt: Divine Word Missionaries (-2%), Conventual Franciscans (-10%), and Discalced Carmelites (-6%).

The Divine Word Missionaries deserve a special mention as the only order of the top dozen whose highest number of members was after the 1960s (it was in 2009).

(* Out of curiosity I checked the top dozen orders based on number of members - it was the same dozen, but in a slightly different order.)

Note that only Male Religious Orders were included because that happens to be the data I have readily available. As time permits, I'll try to do similar charts for Female Religious Orders.

Note II: I updated the charts and the stats above with several additional years of data, including 2012 (from Annuario Pontificio 2013). I've also added a second chart covering just the order Legionaries of Christ here (.pdf format).

The Two Dozen Largest Orders (by Number of Priests) 2012 Edition

In the tables below are the number of priests, % of all priests in orders, the common abbreviation, and the name of the order.

The First Dozen

Priests	%	Abbr	Order
12,739	9.4	S.J.	Society of Jesus
10,625	7.9	S.D.B.	Salesians of Saint John Bosco
9,828	7.3	O.F.M.	Order of Friars Minor
7,026	5.2	O.F.M. Cap.	Order of Friars Minor Capuchin
4,469	3.3	O.P.	Order of Friars Preachers
4,124	3.0	S.V.D.	Society of the Divine Word
4,055	3.0	C.SS.R.	Congregation of the Most Holy Redeemer
4,008	3.0	O.S.B.	Order of Saint Benedict
3,061	2.3	O.M.I.	Oblates of Mary Immaculate
3,024	2.2	C.M.	Congregation of the Mission
2,928	2.2	O.F.M. Conv.	Order of Friars Minor Conventual
2,737	2.0	O.C.D.	Order of Discalced Carmelites

The top 12 largest orders (by number of priests) in total are 51% of all the priests in orders.

The Second Dozen

Priests	%	Abbr	Order
2,177	1.6	C.S.Sp.	Congregation of the Holy Spirit
2,152	1.6	C.M.F.	Missionary Sons of the Immaculate Heart of Mary
2,043	1.5	O.S.A.	Order of St. Augustine
1,675	1.2	C.M.I.	Carmelites of Mary Immaculate
1,672	1.2	S.A.C.	Society of the Catholic Apostolate
1,639	1.2	C.P.	Congregation of the Passion
1,633	1.2	S.C.I.	Congregation of the Priests of the Sacred Heart
1,365	1.0	M.S.C.	Missionaries of the Sacred Heart of Jesus
1,348	1.0	M. Afr.	Missionaries of Africa (White Fathers)
1,343	1.0	O. Carm.	Order of Our Lady of Mt. Carmel
1,261	0.9	M.C.C.I.	Comboni Missionaries of the Heart of Jesus
995	0.7	Sch. P.	Order of the Pious Schools

The top two dozen largest orders include all that have more than 1,000 priests and in total represent 65% of all priests in orders.

(Numbers based on the Annuario Pontificio 2012)

Busy Website

So life at the main website is beginning to return to normal. We had a regular bishop appointment today (Pope Francis named his successor in Buenos Aires).

Below is a graph showing traffic to the website from a week before the Pope Benedict XVI's announcement of his resignation through the a week after Pope Francis was elected. It'll give you some sense of the jump in traffic.

The website had a few breakdowns - some from sheer volume and some from a weather related power outage. But overall it has been going well.

Over the coming weeks things should settle down to normal. Although if 2005 is any indication, the new "normal" will be a good bit busier than before - I suppose from folks discovering the website due to the events just passed, and then coming back.

The Papacy: Some Statistics

The average age of a Pope at their election is 63.5 years old. The average age at the end of their reign is 73.2 years old. That gives an average reign of 9.7 years. The average reign since the very beginning is roughly 7.5 years.

Benedict XVI was 78.0 at his election and his reign will be 7.9 years long.

Young follows Old
There is a distinct pattern of the election of a younger Pope following an older Pope (at election), and vice versa - but their are also exceptions. Here is a chart showing the differences (warning: PDF).

The average difference of the age at election of one Pope compared to the age at election of his predecessor is 10.8 years (median is 11.2).

The biggest differences were -25.0 years (Clement XI following Innocent XII) and +27.0 years (Callistus III following Nicholas V). Benedict XVI was 19.6 years older than John Paul II.

The smallest difference was Clemenet XIII following Benedict XIV - an age difference of only a few weeks (-0.1 years).

Because I know someone will ask, based _purely_ on the averages given above, the closest fit would be Antonio Cardinal Cañizares Llovera who would be 10.6 years younger than Benedict XVI was at his election.

Young follows Old (older only)
Since Benedict XVI was elected at an older age than most, I wanted to look at the same stats, but only including the oldest 10 (Benedict XVI included).

Their average age at election was 77.0 (vs Benedict XVI's 78.0). The low was 72.3 and the high was 79.8 years old.

The average age of their successors was 63.5. The low was 51.3 and the high was 78.3 years old.

That yields a difference, on average, of -13.5 years.

Again, based _purely_ on the averages, the closest fit would be Peter Kodwo Appiah Cardinal Turkson.

Service as a Cardinal
Most Popes have been Cardinals first, although it is not a requirement.

The shortest length of time as a Cardinal before being elected Pope was Nicholas V at 0.3 years. The longest was Benedict XIII at 52.3 years. The average is 14.3 years. (Benedict XVI served as one for 27.8 years.)

Again, purely based on the average above, the next pope might be one of the cardinals that was created in the consistory on 21 Feb 2001. (17 of those created that day will be electors in the conclave.)

Service as Priest and Bishop
Most Popes have been Priests and Bishops first, although it is not a requirement.

The average is 32.6 years as a priest and 19.1 years as a bishop when they are elected Pope.

All of the information above is based on Popes from 1450 to today (and include the anticipated resignation of Pope Benedict XVI on 28 February 2013), unless it explicitly states otherwise.

Cardinals per Pope (updated)

I've updated the Cardinals per Pope chart. (warning: PDF)

The chart is dated today, but the numbers are based on Pope Benedict XVI's upcoming resignation.

Here  are some of the raw numbers:

• Pope Benedict XVI: Cardinals 90; Years 7.9; Average: 11.39 (highest since at least 1450).
• The previous high was Pope John XXIII with 52 Cardinals in 4.6 years for an average of 11.30.
• Since Pope Nicholas V (1447): 2,424 Cardinal created in 558 years of Papal service for an average of 4.34 per year.

Conclave 2013: notes (part 2)

I've created a nice summary page with information on the 2013 Conclave. For obvious reason, there are lots of unknowns at this point.

I'll continue to update it as things progress.  Conclave - 2013

Conclave 2013: notes (part 1)

Assuming no Cardinals die before the Conclave, here is some data:

• 117 Cardinal Electors (of 209 living)
• 78 votes are required for election (2/3rds) [UDG #62]
• 51 of the 117 electors were named by Pope John Paul II, the remaining 66 were named by Pope Benedict XVI
• of the 10 Cardinal-Bishops, only 4 are electors:
1. Giovanni Battista Cardinal Re, of Sabina-Poggio Mirteto
2. Tarcisio Pietro Evasio Cardinal Bertone, S.D.B, of Frascati, Secretary of State, Chamberlain (Camerlengo)
3. Antonios Cardinal Naguib, Coptic Patriarch Emeritus
4. Béchara Boutros Cardinal Raï, O.M.M., Maronite Patriarch
• Since both the Dean and Vice-Dean (Subdean) are over 80, they can not enter the Conclave. The senior Cardinal Bishop will be Giovanni Battista Cardinal Re

While no information on the date of the Conclave has been provided, we have some idea from UDG. The Pope indicated his resignation was effective on 28 February 2013 at 8pm (local time, Rome). According to UDG #37, the Conclave could start as early as the night of 15 March or as late as the night of 20 March.

I suspect that it will begin on either Saturday 16 March or Monday 18 March.

The length, of course, is not knowable.  Recent Conclaves have tended to be fairly short - usually a few days.

That would suggest that a new Pope is possible by the Solemnity of St. Joseph (19 March), likely before Palm Sunday (24 March), and almost certainly by Easter (31 March).